Predicting the 2013 calendar pick order

The 2013 Formula One calendar has been revised today (December 5th). New Jersey, which was meant to be replacing Valencia has been dropped with ‘a European round’ on July 21st. The calendar is therefore as follows:

March 17th – Australia (Melbourne)
March 24th – Malaysia (Sepang)
April 14st – China (Shanghai)
April 21st – Bahrain (Sakhir)
May 12th – Spain (Barcelona)
May 26th – Monaco (Monte Carlo)
June 9th – Canada (Montreal)
June 30th – Britain (Silverstone)
July 7th – Germany (Nurburgring)
July 21st – ‘a European round’
July 28th – Hungary (Hungaroring)
August 25th – Belgium (Spa)
September 8th – Italy (Monza)
September 22nd – Singapore (Marina Bay)
October 6th – Korea (Yeongam)
October 13th – Japan (Suzuka)
October 27th – India (Buddh International Circuit)
November 3rd – Abu Dhabi (Yas Marina)
November 17th – United States (Austin)
November 24th – Brazil (Interlagos)

The European round on July 21st is subject to confirmation but the rest is confirmed. Because of the way the BBC and Sky deal works, both sides have to ‘pick’ races. The races that BBC pick will be shown live on BBC One and Sky Sports F1, while the races that Sky pick will be shown exclusively live on Sky Sports F1, with highlights on BBC One. The picks go as follows:

– BBC pick three races (pick 1, 2 and 3)
– Sky pick three races (pick 4, 5 and 6)
– BBC pick one race (pick 7)
– Sky pick one race (pick 8)

This continues until every race has been picked. Next season is provisionally scheduled with twenty races, but if it was a odd race season, then Sky get the deciding pick, so that they have either half of the total number of races, or “half + 1 race”. Basically here, I’m predicting how the pick orders will go. You’re probably thinking “surely it will be the same as last year, just replacing Valencia with ‘a European round’? I don’t think so. Firstly, because there are no major sporting events in the Summer that clash with Formula 1, which may influence the pick orders. And secondly, if we remained with the same picks as last year, then BBC would not be screening any races for nearly two months, which may be a situation they wish to avoid. This year it was not so bad because they had the Olympics, but there is no Olympics next year for them.

So in effect, I’m going to rip up last year’s pick order and start from scratch.

BBC pick Britain, Monaco and Brazil – Which are presumably the same three first picks as this year. Monaco and Brazil are both the blue ribbon events, the latter again the season finale and potential title decider. Britain is obviously the first pick. Interestingly, it falls on the ‘middle Sunday’ of Wimbledon, which may be the reason why it is in June and not July, to avoid a clash with the Wimbledon final. So the British Grand Prix should be on BBC One next year and not BBC Two as it was this year.

Sky pick Canada, United States and ??? – This is where things get interesting. Sky pick Canada and United States as with this year. But their third pick? For me, it is a toss up between Melbourne and New Jersey in June. From Sky’s perspective, Melbourne is the unfriendliest slot of the entire twenty races, but it is also the season opener. Is it as important for them next year as it is this year? This year they were starting their coverage for the first time, so arguably getting Australia was more important than ever before. Is next year as important? I don’t think so. Plus, with no football competition in June, Canada and New Jersey surely will bring Sky Sports F1 the channel’s highest ever peaks. Whilst Canada’s overall viewing figures were very poor, Sky Sports F1’s highest peak so far also came from that race.

Therefore Sky pick America. As Sky did not pick Australia, that inevitably means BBC pick Australia, potentially even luring viewers into a false sense of security that every race of the season is back on BBC as the season opener is. In any case, as with this year, Sky pick Malaysia.

Okay, the above does not look pretty, but I wanted to keep it there for future reference, so have struck it off. As I noted above. Sky pick Canada, United States and ??? – Had New Jersey been on the calendar, they would have had a choice between that and Australia. But as New Jersey is not on the calendar, Sky will go for the season opener, meaning that it would be exclusively on Sky again. Therefore Sky pick Australia, BBC pick Malaysia and Sky pick China.

Attention at this point I think would move back to the European season with the pick order as follows:

March 17th – Australia (Melbourne) – Sky
March 24th – Malaysia (Sepang) – BBC
April 14st – China (Shanghai) – Sky
April 21st – Bahrain (Sakhir)
May 12th – Spain (Barcelona)
May 26th – Monaco (Monte Carlo) – BBC
June 9th – Canada (Montreal) – Sky
June 30th – Britain (Silverstone) – BBC
July 14th – Germany (Nurburgring)
July 21st – ‘a European round’
July 28th – Hungary (Hungaroring)
August 25th – Belgium (Spa)
September 8th – Italy (Monza)
September 22nd – Singapore (Marina Bay)
October 6th – Korea (Yeongam)
October 13th – Japan (Suzuka)
October 27th – India (Buddh International Circuit)
November 3rd – Abu Dhabi (Yas Marina)
November 17th – United States (Austin) – Sky
November 24th – Brazil (Interlagos) – BBC

Logically, BBC pick Belgium and Sky pick Italy so that BBC get another blue ribbond event. Unlike in previous year’s, where Germany and Hungary were late in the pick line with BBC not having either event live due to the Olympics, I anticipate that both events will be wanted this time around. With that in mind, I can see BBC picking Hungary and Sky picking Germany. It also means that BBC viewers do not go nearly two months without seeing a live Formula 1 race on the BBC, which would have broken the season up massively. From this point, I think picks would essentially ‘transcend’ up the calendar alternatively. So we have BBC pick Abu Dhabi, Sky pick India, BBC pick Japan, Sky pick Korea, BBC pick Singapore.

Which means, we are left with this:

March 17th – Australia (Melbourne) – Sky
March 24th – Malaysia (Sepang) – BBC
April 14st – China (Shanghai) – Sky
April 21st – Bahrain (Sakhir)
May 12th – Spain (Barcelona)
May 26th – Monaco (Monte Carlo) – BBC
June 9th – Canada (Montreal) – Sky
June 30th – Britain (Silverstone) – BBC
July 14th – Germany (Nurburgring) – Sky
July 21st – ‘a European round’
July 28th – Hungary (Hungaroring) – BBC
August 25th – Belgium (Spa) – BBC
September 8th – Italy (Monza) – Sky
September 22nd – Singapore (Marina Bay) – BBC
October 6th – Korea (Yeongam) – Sky
October 13th – Japan (Suzuka) – BBC
October 27th – India (Buddh International Circuit) – Sky
November 3rd – Abu Dhabi (Yas Marina) – BBC
November 17th – United States (Austin) – Sky
November 24th – Brazil (Interlagos) – BBC

The remaining races are therefore Bahrain, Spain and ‘a European round’. Spain falls on the penultimate weekend of the Premier League season, therefore I don’t believe Sky would want this race exclusively. Therefore Sky pick Bahrain. From a timezone standpoint and commercial stand-point, Spain however is better for Sky than China, meaning BBC pick China and Sky pick Spain. The timezone and commercial reason does not exist anymore, instead it is a matter of which race exists and which one may not exist. Therefore BBC pick Spain and Sky pick ‘a European round’.

Which leaves the final calendar as follows:

March 17th – Australia (Melbourne) – Sky
March 24th – Malaysia (Sepang) – BBC
April 14st – China (Shanghai) – Sky
April 21st – Bahrain (Sakhir) – Sky
May 12th – Spain (Barcelona) – BBC
May 26th – Monaco (Monte Carlo) – BBC
June 9th – Canada (Montreal) – Sky
June 30th – Britain (Silverstone) – BBC
July 14th – Germany (Nurburgring) – Sky
July 21st – ‘a European round’ – Sky
July 28th – Hungary (Hungaroring) – BBC
August 25th – Belgium (Spa) – BBC
September 8th – Italy (Monza) – Sky
September 22nd – Singapore (Marina Bay) – BBC
October 6th – Korea (Yeongam) – Sky
October 13th – Japan (Suzuka) – BBC
October 27th – India (Buddh International Circuit) – Sky
November 3rd – Abu Dhabi (Yas Marina) – BBC
November 17th – United States (Austin) – Sky
November 24th – Brazil (Interlagos) – BBC

If ‘a European round’ disappears, then BBC lose Hungary live. Unfortunately, that would mean a two month gap between two live races, but there is little workaround, it is either lose Hungary and Belgium, and Hungary would be the race you prefer to lose. That is how I anticipate the picks will shape up.

Updated on December 5th, 2012.

A few thoughts on Jake Humphrey leaving the BBC

As noted earlier this morning, it has been confirmed today that Jake Humphrey is leaving the BBC at the end of 2012, to join BT Vision from 2013 as presenter for their Premier League football coverage.

Since I wrote that article, Media Guardian have revealed a few details about Humphrey’s contract. They say that Humphrey’s contract is four years long (so from January 1st, 2013 to December 31st, 2016), at approximately £250,000-plus per year (the Daily Mail say £800,000 per year). Interestingly the article also says that the deal is ‘not exclusive’ and that he can work for the BBC outside of his contract period. I am not quite sure what that means, as far as I read it, he cannot work for the BBC between January 2013 and December 2016, I won’t claim to be an expert in how these things work, so I may be reading that wrong.

Some will argue that Humphrey has left the BBC, as a result of them sacrificing half of their Formula 1 rights to Sky Sports in July 2011. I do not believe that is necessarily true. If it was true, then why did Humphrey not move to pastures new at the end of 2011? Personally, I suspect the reason he is leaving is due to his wife having a baby, due in March 2013. It is a perfectly reasonable reason, after all if you want to start a family, would you rather have work based in England an hour or two away, or be travelling around the world twenty times a year? A no brainer for me. The interesting point for me is when did BBC find out that Humphrey was leaving? I can see why Humphrey wanted to continue with BBC for 2012, because of the Diamond Jubilee, Euro 2012 and the Olympics, whereas in the next few years on BBC, there is not much ahead for Humphrey apart from Formula 1. This tweet from Humphrey twelve days ago now makes a lot of sense: “If I was Lewis, I think I’d give it a go elsewhere. New faces, new challenges. As my old boss once said ‘never sit in the comfy chair’…” – new faces, and new challenges is what lie ahead in his future.

In my opinion, Humphrey has been the best Formula 1 presenter we have had in this country, and he will be missed on the BBC F1 show next year. The thing about Humphrey is that he makes presenting look effortless in the Formula 1 paddock, it is a joy to watch. Humphrey’s four year stay as BBC F1 presenter between 2009 and 2012 compares with Jim Rosenthal’s nine year stay as ITV F1 presenter between 1997 and 2005, and Steve Rider’s three years as ITV presenter from 2006 to 2008. Hopefully the three amigos, Humphrey, David Coulthard and Eddie Jordan can go out with a bang at the end of the season.

The question now is, who will replace Humphrey? The most obvious, and likely, choice is Lee McKenzie. This year, she has hosted the Canadian, German and Hungarian highlights shows as well as presenting live coverage of the Japanese Grand Prix in 2010. McKenzie is a safe pair of hands, has motor sport presenting experience, and is already a BBC employee, so is therefore the most likely candidate. Outside of McKenzie, could David Coulthard step up to be presenter? Unlikely, but we seen Martin Brundle present the Japanese Grand Prix in 2008 on ITV, so it is not impossible. I don’t see that myself. Moving outside of the BBC Formula 1 team, but staying within the BBC, one sports presenters I was thinking of is Gabby Logan. Logan does not do a lot of work at present at BBC Sport and if they do draw up a shortlist, I think Logan would be on there with nearly fifteen years of sports presenting. As far as I know (someone correct me if I am wrong), she has not presented a motor sports programme before, which may count against her. The other BBC Sport presenter I was thinking of is Matt Roberts, the current MotoGP presenter. Surprisingly, his name has not been mentioned once, but Roberts I think is a definite contender, having already ousted Suzi Perry as MotoGP presenter at the end of 2010. I’m unsure of whether Roberts is contracted through BBC directly or whether he is contracted through Century TV, the company which produces BBC’s MotoGP coverage, so that may complicate things slightly.

Outside of the BBC? Steve Rider potentially, but I don’t see him wanting to present on location at every race again, his current deal with ITV for the British Touring Car Championship and Sky for the F1 Legends programming seems to suit him at the moment. There are no other obvious people to me, I don’t forsee anyone moving over from the Sky Sports F1 team to present Formula 1 on the BBC. The shortlist is a short one, but I think McKenzie and Roberts are the front runners here.

The above however all relies on one assumption: that BBC are not planning on pulling out of Formula 1 at the end of the year. I don’t think they are, personally I anticipate the deal that was signed last July will remain in place. But no doubt the announcement today may well fuel speculation that the BBC may be about to pull out of showing Formula 1 live altogether. I sincerely hope that does not happen, but we were surprised with the news last July. I just hope, we are not about to be surprised again with news for the worse…

As always, your comments, thoughts and speculation about the future of Formula 1 on BBC, as well as who will be the new host of BBC F1 are welcome.

Jake Humphrey to join BT Vision, leaving BBC at the end of 2012

Jake Humphrey is to leave the BBC at the end of 2012, becoming the host of BT Vision’s coverage of the 2013-14 Premier League season, the company has announced, as few days ago by Charles Sale.

In the press release, Humphrey says “I am incredibly excited to be joining the team at BT not just because I get to fulfil a lifelong dream of presenting the Barclays Premier League but because of the fresh perspective that BT will bring to both sport and broadcasting in this country. To be a part of this young, vibrant team who are as passionate about sport, as I am, is a privilege.

“I’ve grown up at the BBC, and whilst I hope to work with them in the future, I’d also like to place on record my thanks to them. I am incredibly grateful to all colleagues, and of course the viewers, for their incredible support from CBBC all the way to Formula 1. My focus from the start of 2013 is on making BT’s coverage of football the best this country has ever seen.”

Marc Watson, chief executive of BT Vision, said: “We are absolutely delighted that Jake has chosen to join our new sports channel to anchor our Premier League programming.

“Jake is a tremendously experienced and popular sports broadcaster and a fresh, young and innovative talent. He impressed us with his willingness to get deeply involved in the development of our live football programming and we took into account his track record of excellent presenting across many sports. He fits our plans for the new channel perfectly and we are very excited to be working with him.”

With that news, BBC are looking for a new Formula 1 presenter. I don’t think they will be looking far though, as I imagine Lee McKenzie will step up to the presenters’ breach with Tom Clarkson taking over McKenzie’s role, like what happened earlier this year when Humphrey was presenting Euro 2012 and the Olympics.

Scheduling: The Singapore Grand Prix

The European leg of the 2012 Formula One season is over, now it is time for the flyaways, starting with the Singapore Grand Prix night race and the good news is that both BBC and Sky are live. As expected, the time difference means that the schedule is slightly different, with Practice happening later on Friday, and Qualifying an hour later on Saturday (although coincidentally, it is an hour earlier than in previous years). Both broadcasters’ have an identical build-up length for Qualifying, so if you wish, you can make direct comparisons as Sky will not be running adverts.

The GP2 season also comes to a fascinating climax in Singapore with Davide Valsecchi and Luiz Razia fighting for the championship title. As always, every GP2 session during the weekend is live on Sky Sports F1 with commentary from Will Buxton and Jerome d’Ambrosio, who returns to the commentary box after his Lotus F1 drive in Monza. While on the subject of GP2, I should note that it is unclear whether Sky Sports will continue airing GP2 and GP3 next season. The press release at the start of the year did not specify a length for the contract (after all, Sky did not have to take up the option to air the support races live) and the races have not set the ratings alight. I suspect GP2 and GP3 will continue next year live on Sky Sports if the Sky Sports F1 channel remains in its current vein.

Thursday 20th September
11:00 to 11:45 – F1: Driver Press Conference (Sky Sports F1)

Friday 21st September
08:40 to 09:20 – GP2: Practice (Sky Sports F1)
10:45 to 12:55 – F1: Practice 1 (Sky Sports F1)
10:55 to 12:35 – F1: Practice 1 (BBC Red Button)
12:55 to 13:45 – GP2: Qualifying (Sky Sports F1)
14:15 to 16:15 – F1: Practice 2 (Sky Sports F1)
14:25 to 16:05 – F1: Practice 2 (BBC Red Button)
16:15 to 17:00 – F1: Team Press Conference (Sky Sports F1)
18:30 to 19:30 – The F1 Show (Sky Sports F1)
18:45 to 19:00 – Inside F1 (BBC News Channel)

Saturday 22nd September
08:55 to 10:25 – GP2: Race 1 (Sky Sports F1)
10:45 to 12:10 – F1: Practice 3 (Sky Sports F1)
10:55 to 12:05 – F1: Practice 3 (BBC Red Button)
13:00 to 15:30 – F1: Qualifying (BBC One)
13:00 to 15:45 – F1: Qualifying (Sky Sports F1)
18:45 to 19:00 – Inside F1 (BBC News Channel)

Sunday 23rd September
09:05 to 10:10 – GP2: Race 2 (Sky Sports F1)
11:30 to 16:15 – F1: Race (Sky Sports F1)
12:10 to 15:20 – F1: Race (BBC One)
15:20 to 16:20 – F1: Forum (BBC Red Button)

Update on September 14th, 20:35, as noted on The F1 Show, Georgie Thompson is staying in London for the Singapore Grand Prix weekend, so expect her along with Anthony Davidson on the Sky Pad from the Sky studios.

International Motor Sport: why it desperately needs to return to terrestrial television

Next weekend, the 2012 GP2 Series season comes to a conclusion in Singapore, with Davide Valsecchi and Luiz Razia aiming to win the championship. The series runs alongside the GP3 Series as Formula 1’s support package during race weekends, that particular championship concluding with a fantastic series finale last Sunday as Mitch Evans clinched the championship in the final laps.

While both championships have, for the most part, provided fantastic racing this season, there is a sad reality here in the UK. The reality is, that despite having three British drivers in GP2 and a further three drivers in GP3, the viewing figures on Sky Sports F1 have been embarrassingly low. Practice and Qualifying figures, understandably, are very low because I would not expect casual fans to watch that, but the race figures have been nothing to shout about. Here are the race figures that I have to hand for the season so far:

Bahrain
– 21/04/12 – GP2 Race 1: 56,000 (0.58%) average from 13:40 to 15:05; peak: 91,000 (0.98%) at 13:40
– 22/04/12 – GP2 Race 2: 46,000 (0.57%) average from 08:45 to 09:50; peak: 68,000 (0.86%) at 09:05

Spain
– 12/05/12 – GP2 Race 1: 62,000 (0.74%) average from 14:35 to 16:00; peak: 106,000 (1.30%) at 14:35
– 12/05/12 – GP3 Race 1: 42,000 (0.39%) average from 16:15 to 17:10; peak: 57,000 (0.57%) at 16:20
– 13/05/12 – GP3 Race 2: 32,000 (0.53%) average from 08:20 to 09:15; peak: 51,000 (0.84%) at 08:40
– 13/05/12 – GP2 Race 2: 35,000 (0.45%) average from 09:30 to 10:35; peak: 46,000 (0.59%) at 09:45

Monaco – all support race figures under 55,000

Europe – all support race figures under 42,000

Britain
– 08/07/12 – GP2 Race 2: 54,000 average from 09:35 to 10:40
– all other figures under 54,000

Germany
– 21/07/12 – GP2 Race 1: 100,000 average from 14:35 to 16:00
– all other figures under 72,000

Hungary – all support race figures under 24,000

Belgium
– 01/09/12 – GP2 Race 1: 29,000 average from 14:35 to 16:00

Only once this season has the GP2 Series hit 100,000 viewers. When you consider that Formula 1 regularly attracts audiences of over 4 million viewers, surely it is not right that the series’ one tier down attracts only 2.5 percent of the Formula 1 viewership?

If you look at any other sport, the gap between two tiers is not as large as that, where one attracts 4 million viewers, and the others only attract 100,000 viewers. The first problem has to be the lack of promotion given to it by Sky Sports. Throughout the months of promotion it gave to Formula 1, the only promotion they gave to GP2 and GP3 was a thirty second trailer to put on their website before the start of the season. No on-air trailers with dates and times to alert people, nothing of that sort has aired once this season on any Sky Sports channel promoting GP2. And I think that’s pretty poor myself. I have only ever seen GP2 and GP3 mentioned on Sky Sports News once, and that was when Conor Daly had his horrific accident at Monaco. They’ve never had a brief summary of the results with one or two clips summarising events and a quick interview with the winner, after all I lose count of how many times goals from the second and third tiers of English football are replayed constantly on Sky Sports News.

The fact here is that GP2 and GP3 deserve to have viewing figures so much higher than what they currently are getting and it is a sad indictment that not many people will be watching the GP2 Series conclude next weekend. Had James Calado had a good weekend in Italy, he would have been in the championship name, but how many people know of the name “James Calado”? Not many. Someone on another blog post of mine said “James who? Max who? Oh, I’m sorry. You can only see them at work behind a paywall. Disgraceful.” It is hard to disagree with him.

But is it all Sky Sports’ fault that GP2 and GP3 are doing badly? Some of it is, I’ve outlined promotion issues above. In my opinion though, no it isn’t. In fact, I would argue that the BBC have some proportion of blame here as well. Let us go back to 2007. ITV were screening International Motor Sport, which summarised the events of GP2 (and before that Formula 3000), with commentary from James Allen (previously Simon Taylor). From 1997 to 2007, ITV had that commitment to screening a half an hour highlights show on ITV1 on Saturday afternoons irrespective of viewing figures, the will to screen it always existed so viewers recognised future talent. It is where I watched on occasions Lewis Hamilton’s GP2 races in 2006 alongside Eurosport’s live coverage. Whilst the ITV1 ratings may have been low for the slot, they were multiple times higher than the 100,000 viewers that the live races attract at their peak on Sky Sports F1. In 2008, the coverage extended so that races were covered live on ITV4 with Charlie Webster presenting, which re-affirmed their commitment to showing GP2. It turned out to be their last year covering Formula 1 and GP2 as they gave up the rights to concentrate on the UEFA Champions League.

From 2009, Formula 1 coverage moved to the BBC. Whilst Formula 1 coverage got better on the BBC, what happened with the GP2 Series? The terrestrial commitment stopped. The BBC passed on showing the GP2 Series in any form, and instead Setanta Sports were left to pick up the live rights. As it turns out, that only lasted for half a year, Setanta went bust, and the live rights reverted to Eurosport, until Sky Sports won the F1 rights, taking with it GP2 and GP3. My point here is that had BBC decided “you know what, we will screen highlights in some form”, the conclusion may well be very different. It may not have been a ratings hit, it may have been under their slot average, but it would show their commitment to future Formula 1 stars. Place it neatly in the schedules, maybe directly after F1 Qualifying at 14:30. Unfortunately, for whatever reason, they did not take GP2 up.

I’ll finish this piece by linking to a video. It is an interview Steve Rider did at this year’s AUTOSPORT International show.

I know that the GP2 Series is worldwide rather than British based, but in my opinion, the point still remains. It is in GP2 and GP3 where the first glimpses of future world champions can be seen, where the next Schumacher, Raikkonen and Alonso can be found.

And how much coverage can terrestrial television viewers see? Nothing. And that, for me, is sad.