Predicting the 2016 calendar pick order

Note: This post is now rendered obsolete following the announcement that Channel 4 will be taking over the BBC’s rights from 2016 onwards. A new post will be uploaded in due course.

In the biggest shake-up of the Formula 1 calendar in quite some time, the 2016 season will contain 21 races, with a bit of a calendar reshuffle. The season was originally set to start in April, but now it looks like a March start is back on the cards. It is tradition for The F1 Broadcasting Blog each year to predict the BBC and Sky pick order. The main changes are that Malaysia and Russia swap ends on the calendar. Baku, listed as the European Grand Prix, has been added in June, controversially clashing with the 24 Hours of Le Mans. 2016 is the fifth year of the current BBC and Sky broadcasting contract. The calendar, as it is stands, is therefore as follows:

I’ve done the calendar above as a table, given the amount of year-on-year changes, it means that there are a few timing changes which may influence the pick order – although sadly for BBC, the Australian Grand Prix will not be on at 07:00 UK time! Because of the way the BBC and Sky deal works, both sides have to ‘pick’ races. The races that BBC pick will be shown live on BBC One and Sky Sports F1, while the races that Sky pick will be shown exclusively live on Sky Sports F1, with highlights on BBC One. The picks go as follows:

– BBC pick three races (pick 1, 2 and 3)
– Sky pick three races (pick 4, 5 and 6)
– BBC pick one race (pick 7)
– Sky pick one race (pick 8)

This continues until every race has been picked. There are 21 races on the calendar, so BBC will screen ten races live with Sky screening eleven races exclusively live. We found out earlier this year that the picks do not change in the event of a race being dropped from the calendar. Even though Germany was dropped from the 2015 calendar, the picks stayed the same, meaning BBC were able to broadcast three races in a row live. There are a lot of different factors in the 2016 season, more so than usual, with the European Championships playing a part throughout the middle phase of the season. However, crucially, the Olympic Games does not clash with the Formula 1, which is a genius move. Again, this post is only for discussion and a bit of fun with the pick orders. My tally for 2015 of getting 11 out of 19 correct was slightly better than usual though, which is good!

BBC pick Britain, Abu Dhabi and Brazil – Abu Dhabi and Britain are compulsory picks being the last race of the season and the home race respectively. From the BBC’s perspective, USA and Mexico run deep into primetime at a time of the year where they will have big programming, and Canada clashes with the opening weekend of Euro 2016, so again Brazil is the only option for their third pick in my view. What it does mean is that they definitely cannot pick Mexico, as they can’t have three live races in a row. Does the fact that the title race looks likely to be resolved earlier than usual change things? I don’t think so given that Mexico and USA run deeper into primetime than Brazil, and thus would disrupt BBC One’s schedule more. I’d expect to see Sky picking Canada, USA and Australia. It’s a tie between Australia and Monaco really, but the season opener is still a big deal in the eyes of Sky. BBC could in theory pick Australia instead of Brazil, but they haven’t picked Australia since this deal began, and I don’t see that changing. There might have been more chance of BBC picking Australia had it stayed in April, but not now. Ridiculously, the British Grand Prix now falls on the same day as not only the Wimbledon final (meaning demotion to BBC Two) but also with the final of Euro 2016.

Mexico and Monaco I would expect to be on BBC’s and Sky’s agenda early, a primetime race and a prestigious race. Bahrain too has to figure somewhere, arguably its positioning makes it a great pick for BBC. I can see BBC picking Bahrain, and as discussed earlier, Sky pick Mexico. In reality, Mexico would probably be left until the end given that BBC have already gone for the last two places, but I’m trying to do it blocks so the post does not get too confusing. Mexico takes priority over Monaco because it could be a championship decider.

We are left in this position:

March 20th – Australia (Melbourne) – Sky
April 3rd – Bahrain (Sakhir) – BBC
April 17th – China (Shanghai)
May 1st – Russia (Sochi)
May 15th – Spain (Barcelona)
May 29th – Monaco (Monaco)
June 12th – Canada (Montreal) – Sky
June 19th – Europe (Baku)
July 3rd – Austria (Red Bull Ring)
July 10th – Britain (Silverstone)
July 24th – Hungary (Budapest)
July 31st – Germany (Hockenheim)
August 28th – Belgium (Spa)
September 4th – Italy (Monza)
September 18th – Singapore (Marina Bay)
October 2nd – Malaysia (Sepang)
October 9th – Japan (Suzuka)
October 23rd – USA (Circuit of the Americas) – Sky
November 6th – Mexico (Mexico City) – Sky
November 13th – Brazil (Interlagos) – BBC
November 27th – Abu Dhabi (Yas Marina) – BBC

Normally, at this stage, I’d work down from start to finish, but Euro 2016 complicates matters. For that reason, I think we will see BBC pick Monaco and Sky pick Italy. It is unusual for me to label Monaco as pick nine, but I do think BBC will consider Bahrain high priority, whilst the addition of Mexico bumps it further down the order. BBC are certainly not going to jump for any race that clashes indirectly or directly with Euro 2016. Sky probably would want some exclusive live F1 content during the Summer next year, but it certainly won’t be at the sacrifice of screening either USA or Mexico exclusively live, for example. Following that, BBC pick Germany, Sky pick Belgium, BBC pick Singapore and Sky pick Malaysia. Lastly in this set, BBC pick Russia and Sky pick Spain. Spain does clash with the end of the Premier League season though, which is worth bearing in mind.

The schedule therefore looks like this:

March 20th – Australia (Melbourne) – Sky
April 3rd – Bahrain (Sakhir) – BBC
April 17th – China (Shanghai)
May 1st – Russia (Sochi) – BBC
May 15th – Spain (Barcelona) – Sky
May 29th – Monaco (Monaco) – BBC
June 12th – Canada (Montreal) – Sky
June 19th – Europe (Baku)
July 3rd – Austria (Red Bull Ring)
July 10th – Britain (Silverstone) – BBC
July 24th – Hungary (Budapest)
July 31st – Germany (Hockenheim) – BBC
August 28th – Belgium (Spa) – Sky
September 4th – Italy (Monza) – Sky
September 18th – Singapore (Marina Bay) – BBC
October 2nd – Malaysia (Sepang) – Sky
October 9th – Japan (Suzuka)
October 23rd – USA (Circuit of the Americas) – Sky
November 6th – Mexico (Mexico City) – Sky
November 13th – Brazil (Interlagos) – BBC
November 27th – Abu Dhabi (Yas Marina) – BBC

We’re left with China, Baku, Austria, Hungary and Japan. BBC cannot pick China or Hungary, Sky cannot pick Japan, otherwise they would be showing three races in a row live, which they cannot do unless something drops out. At this stage, it is between Baku and Austria. It is assumed that Baku will clash with the final few hours of the 24 Hours of Le Mans but not the end of the race. Austria clashes with the London ePrix, but it is not a direct clash – the ePrix starts at 16:00 UK time, although there will be personnel clashes. I think BBC pick Austria as it forms a double-header with Britain. Sky pick Baku, BBC pick Japan and Sky pick both China and Hungary.

Which leaves us with this final calendar:

March 20th – Australia (Melbourne) – Sky
April 3rd – Bahrain (Sakhir) – BBC
April 17th – China (Shanghai) – Sky
May 1st – Russia (Sochi) – BBC
May 15th – Spain (Barcelona) – Sky
May 29th – Monaco (Monaco) – BBC
June 12th – Canada (Montreal) – Sky
June 19th – Europe (Baku) – Sky
July 3rd – Austria (Red Bull Ring) – BBC
July 10th – Britain (Silverstone) – BBC
July 24th – Hungary (Budapest) – Sky
July 31st – Germany (Hockenheim) – BBC
August 28th – Belgium (Spa) – Sky
September 4th – Italy (Monza) – Sky
September 18th – Singapore (Marina Bay) – BBC
October 2nd – Malaysia (Sepang) – Sky
October 9th – Japan (Suzuka) – BBC
October 23rd – USA (Circuit of the Americas) – Sky
November 6th – Mexico (Mexico City) – Sky
November 13th – Brazil (Interlagos) – BBC
November 27th – Abu Dhabi (Yas Marina) – BBC

I don’t think we will know the actual picks until the New Year, as the Euro 2016 draw does not take place until December. Either way, this is an initial guess at how things will transpire.

Updated on October 18th, 2015.

A significant milestone

The date: Friday 29th July 2011.
The location: Budapest.
The time: 07:00 UK.

The press release went out. The paddock left to clean up the mess, as the fans looked on in shock and disbelief. “BBC TV and Sky Sports have been awarded the live rights to Formula 1™ between 2012 and 2018”, were the words at the top of the press release.

It was something that the majority of Formula 1 fans in the UK feared would happen. The move was a result of the licence fee settlement the previous Autumn, which meant that the BBC had to tighten budgets in all departments. It was either Six Nations, Wimbledon or Formula 1 that was going to be chopped. Axing Wimbledon or the Six Nations, both of which have been BBC staples for decades, would have been extremely controversial, especially when you consider the number of people that play tennis and rugby at grass roots levels.

The axe swung towards Formula 1, as the BBC entered a deal with Sky Sports. The move was controversial, more so considering that the sport in the UK was at its peak in popularity. Despite Sebastian Vettel’s dominance, the majority of races in 2011 peaked with over six million viewers. Since then, numbers have dropped. When Formula 1 bosses wonder why some fans are more vocal than previously in relation to the current on-track product this season, I’d give the same answer that I gave to BBC’s chief F1 writer Andrew Benson on Twitter: “People are more likely to complain about something that they have to pay for rather than something that is free to air…”

So, why did the BBC go into allegiance with Sky and not another free-to-air broadcaster? Unfortunately for BBC, ITV had already allocated budgets for 2012 to cover the European Championships, and therefore could not be considered. Channel 4 were also not considered, despite their interest in securing the rights. I mention this in light of yesterday’s news that the Six Nations rights will be shared between BBC and ITV from 2016 to 2021. There are some similarities between the two, but also some interesting differences. The main similarity in both cases is that the original BBC contract ended early. For Formula 1, the BBC contract was originally 2009 to 2013. BBC renegotiated the contract in the middle of 2011. BBC’s current Six Nations contract was scheduled to last until 2017, except the shared offering with ITV means that the new contract will begin with immediate effect. The reasoning though is different. BBC were always going to get into discussions with the Six Nations Council at this stage it appears. However, Sky Sports also tabled a bid, which led BBC to go to ITV, tabling a joint bid to knock Sky off to stage left.

The key difference between the F1 situation and the Six Nations situation is that the BBC were able to bring ITV as partner on board for the rugby, which they couldn’t do for the F1 due to the point made above. The benefit of any joint BBC and ITV bid is that it is far more compelling for a rights holder to accept a joint bid from free-to-air broadcasters than a single one from a pay-TV broadcaster given the extra exposure that it would bring to the championship. However, BBC were left with no other choice. Had they not gone into partnership with ITV, then they risked either losing the Six Nations completely or needing to go into partnership with Sky Sports. The reaction to the last partnership would be a lot more volatile than the former option…

We’re half-way through the current Formula 1 contract. What happens next? For the next six to nine months, nothing. As mentioned earlier, the current contract between BBC, Sky and FOM runs out at the end of 2018. With the recent licence fee settlement that played out earlier this week. At the moment, no one knows what BBC Sport’s budget will or will not be in the years to come, but one thing is for sure, it will be lower, hence why BBC could not justify outbidding Sky for the Six Nations. The situation is complicated, and there are a lot of different factors that come into play. Do BBC and Sky want to continue their existing relationship? Or would BBC prefer to be in partnership with another free-to-air channel? And where does BT Sport fit into this, if anywhere?

My gut instinct tells me that the deal will be renegotiated before the end of the contract. By renegotiation, I do not mean BBC pulling out the contract. What I mean is BBC and Sky renegotiating their existing contract, in order to extend it to around 2021 or 2022. This assumes that the BBC are happy with the current product, the current viewing figures, what they are currently paying compared with what they are getting and whether they can afford to pay that much. If BBC cannot pay that much, could we realistically see a situation where the BBC only broadcasts only the British, first and last races live? I don’t know. But I definitely think the current deal will be renegotiated early, from the BBC’s longer term perspective that probably is the best option rather than letting the contract run until its end. It would also be to Sky’s benefit as well, as it would mean that BT Sport do not get a look in. Running the contract to the end risks BT Sport and Sky Sports fighting over the live contract alone, should they wish to. However, it also depends whether FOM wishes to take the money or the viewers. As motorcycling fans will know, we’ve been in this position before.

ITV’s F1 contract was meant to last until 2010. They exited in 2008.
BBC’s F1 contract was meant to last until 2013. They renegotiated in 2011.
BBC’s and Sky’s current F1 agreement is meant to last until 2018. I suspect 2016 will be a very interesting year in F1 broadcasting…

Your Formula 1 2015 television viewing habits revealed

Over 200 blog readers in the past two months have given their thoughts on how they have consumed Formula 1 both so far this season, and also in 2014. The findings are not meant to be representative of the entire population, but merely a snapshot of what readers of this blog think. The survey was uploaded to the blog in early May, with readers adding their thoughts and comments until the beginning of June.

The main comment from the outset is that the number of respondents year-on-year dropped from 353 respondents last year to 201 respondents this year. There are multiple reasons for the drop in responses from a blog perspective. 2015 has been a quieter year on the motor sport broadcasting front and I have had more real life commitments in the first half of the year, meaning that in turn the blog has been getting less hits, hence the survey getting less responses compared with last year. Which is fine, as I mention above, the survey is meant to be treated as a ‘blog snapshot’ rather than anything more.

General Conclusions
– 17 percent of readers have changed their viewing habits between 2014 and 2015
– 56 percent of readers are aged 35 and under
– Consumption of races has decreased

For the first time since I started this survey, I asked readers for their age and gender and it was interesting to see the responses. Unsurprisingly, the majority of people who completed the survey are aged between 16 and 34, this amounted for 52 percent of the responses. It is interesting, because one assumes that there is a similar demographic split on the majority of motor sport websites. I call it interesting as TV viewing typically skews old, such as BBC’s British Grand Prix coverage which probably had an average age in the late 40’s. But the difference in skew is not surprising given the rise of social media.

Overall, 17 percent of readers have changed their viewing year-on-year, compared with 20 percent in 2013 and an almost identical percentage versus the survey that I did on the blog this time last year. 17 percent is a typical number and no bigger or smaller than expected.

Audience trends
– Blog readers tune out of F1 coverage
– BBC TV and Sky Sports feel the brunt with drops

There is only one real trend here. Year-on-year, blog readers are watching less Formula 1 action, irrespective of whether the race is exclusively live on Sky, or whether live coverage is being shared with the BBC. The raw drops vary depending on what you compare. The lowest drop of 2 percent is when you compare BBC’s race highlights year-on-year, compared with a 7 percent drop for Sky’s exclusively live coverage. A few comments from blog readers in the PDF attached at the bottom of this post allude to the fact that, over the years from 2012, they are less inclined to watch the highlights programming as they do not feel as attached to the coverage as previously.

Interestingly, for those readers that have the choice, just over two out of three people watch Sky’s coverage all year around, preferring them to BBC’s coverage.

Change versus 2014
Looking at whether people are more or less likely to view BBC and Sky this year, it appears that there has been a slight swing of around two to three percent away from Sky and towards the BBC. In the context of the number of responses, we are talking about four or five people that would have swung it the other way. Examining the comments made, and the usual topics crop up, notably Sky’s pricing again, although there is clearly a divide between those who love Sky’s coverage and those who hate Sky’s coverage.

As I said at the beginning, the survey is by no means definitive, but is there to just give a snapshot of the picture from my blog readers. This post is just my reading of the results, however for full disclosure the survey results are below. Like last year, the comments as well as the survey results are worth a read. There were not as many comments as last year due to the smaller results size, but I’ve picked out around 30 comments which I thought were worth a read, and in my view clearly show the vast range of opinions that blog readers have concerning F1 broadcasting.

The full survey results can be found here, and a selection of detailed comments from a variety of readers can be found here.

British Grand Prix peaks with 5.9 million

Lewis Hamilton’s victory in the rain-affected British Grand Prix peaked with 5.9 million viewers yesterday, overnight viewing figures show.

Race
The first disclaimer before outlining the figures is that there are no comparisons to 2012 and 2014, because both of those years clashed with Wimbledon and rated significantly lower than yesterday. The only valid comparison of recent years under the current contract is with the 2013 race.

BBC One’s live coverage of the race, which aired from 12:15 to 15:30, averaged 3.63m (34.2%), peaking with 4.93m (42.4%) at 14:30 as Hamilton sealed victory. Both of those numbers are down on 2013’s race, which featured Pirelli’s punctures and Nico Rosberg’s victory. 2013’s programme on BBC One from 12:10 to 15:30 averaged 3.72m (35.3%), peaking with 5.12m (43.7%), also at 14:30. Neither of the drops are significant, around 3 to 4 percent, but noticeable nevertheless for BBC’s coverage.

On both average and peak, BBC was down between 100k and 200k versus 2013, with Sky benefiting as a result. Live coverage on Sky Sports F1 averaged 530k (5.0%) from 12:00 to 15:30, with a further 114k (1.0%) watching on Sky Sports 1. The combined average of 646k (6.1%) and combined peak of 920k (7.9%) are both up on Sky’s 2013 average of 567k (5.4%) and peak of 860k (7.3%) – although the raw Sky Sports F1 channel numbers are down if you choose not to include Sky Sports 1’s numbers in the calculations.

Overall, the combined audience across BBC and Sky’s output of 4.28 million is down very marginally on 2013’s audience of 4.29 million, the percentage difference between the two numbers is 0.29 percent, so we are talking thousands here. There is a bigger difference for the peak. 2013’s race peaked with 5.98 million, compared with 5.85 million yesterday, a bigger drop of 2.2 percent. Again, we’re not talking a huge drop, but it should be re-iterated that the figures are a far cry from what the British Grand Prix managed in 2010 and 2011, when the race peaked with nearly 7 million viewers.

The 2014 British Grand Prix ratings report can be found here.