When I wrote the original BBC and Sky Sports calendar predictions post for the 2016 Formula One season back in the Summer, no one could have anticipated what was going to unfold in the months that followed. Readers are probably now well aware that Channel 4 are the new terrestrial television rights holders, succeeding the BBC who have exited their contract with immediate effect.

So yes, Channel 4 will be broadcasting the 2016 Australian Grand Prix on Sunday 20th March. My post from the Summer is completely redundant now and serves no purpose. I thought it would be easier to create a new post rather than to completely rework that post. It is apt that the biggest calendar shake-up happens alongside the broadcasting shake-up, with the 2016 season containing 21 races, starting in March. It is tradition for The F1 Broadcasting Blog each year to predict the pick order, for the next three years that will be the Channel 4 and Sky pick order (if you’re not used to reading that yet, you will be soon!).

The finalised calendar is as follows:

I have done the calendar above as a table, given the amount of year-on-year changes, notably Russia and Malaysia swapping on the calendar. Furthermore, I have received confirmation from Channel 4 that the ‘pick’ process is identical to the previous BBC and Sky deal. The races that Channel 4 pick will be shown live on Channel 4 and Sky Sports F1, while the races that Sky pick will be shown exclusively live on Sky Sports F1, with highlights on Channel 4. The picks go as follows:

– Channel 4 pick three races (pick 1, 2 and 3)
– Sky pick three races (pick 4, 5 and 6)
– Channel 4 pick one race (pick 7)
– Sky pick one race (pick 8)

This continues until every race has been picked. There are 21 races on the calendar, so Channel 4 will screen ten races live with Sky screening eleven races exclusively live. If a race is dropped from the calendar, the picks do not change retrospectively. Germany was dropped from the 2015 calendar, but the picks stayed the same, meaning BBC were able to broadcast three races in a row live. Channel 4’s live sporting contracts consist of the Paralympics and horse racing, the latter of which occurs on the majority of Saturdays round the year. Avoiding every race that Channel 4 show is going to be incredibly difficult, however Channel 4 will be looking to avoid the major race days where possible. Bumping either a live major horse race or Formula 1 qualifying to E4 or More4 will do no one any favours.

Another factor that we need to consider is whether Channel 4 want the majority of their live races to be European based. Whilst it may not change the end result, it will influence the picking order in my view. There have already been questions about whether Channel 4’s current deal is commercially viable. David Elstein, a former executive of both Channel 5 and Sky, believes the deal is viable based on sponsorship alone, but notes that highlights will have adverts included, as we expected. Again, this post is only for discussion and a bit of fun with the pick orders. I am doing this a bit smarter though than previously, and applying all the rules that come along with the picking process as we go through the post. My tally for 2015 of getting 11 out of 19 correct was slightly better than usual though, which is good!

Channel 4 pick Britain, Abu Dhabi and Mexico (picks 1 to 3). Whether Britain and Abu Dhabi are compulsory picks I do not know, but given that one is the home race and the other is the final race, both of these are expected picks. Unfortunately, Britain will not rate well again in 2016 as it clashes with the first part of the Wimbledon final on BBC One. Channel 4’s third pick is between Canada, USA, Mexico and Brazil. Canada is not an option this early due to Euro 2016. USA starts at 20:00 and would mean interrupting Homeland mid-run (I know the F1 would rate higher, but let us not annoy Channel 4’s existing audience). Mexico therefore gets the nod over Brazil because it starts in primetime, but would still finish before 21:00. If anything, you could do something different and ‘wrap’ the F1 around Homeland, with studio based post-race analysis following Homeland at 22:00 (more on that line of thinking in a separate blog post in the next week or so).

The above means Sky automatically get Brazil (pick 21). Sky cannot have three exclusive races in a row, and Channel 4 cannot broadcast three live races in a row. Just to clarify, the above text says ‘pick 21’ as Sky would not waste a pick up front for Brazil when they know they are guaranteed the race regardless. Channel 4 will not be too fussed about losing Brazil given that it clashes with Sky’s second Ford Super Sunday game and the live viewing figures would be dented as a result. Therefore, Sky pick USA, Canada and Monaco (picks 4 to 6).  USA and Canada are primetime races, whilst Monaco is the blue ribbon race on the calendar. I do think there is a choice between Monaco and Bahrain. Bahrain is the better timeslot, but it overlaps with the Premier League season, so I think Sky will opt for Monaco.

By Sky picking Monaco, it means Channel 4 automatically get Spain (pick 17) and Channel 4 automatically get Europe (pick 19). Europe does fall in the same weekend as the Royal Ascot, but the time difference means that the Grand Prix qualifying session in Baku should have wrapped up before the horse racing action gets underway. In fact, having the two back-to-back could lead to a bumper day for Channel 4 on June 18th. In turn, Sky automatically get Austria (pick 20), otherwise Channel 4 would be screening Europe, Austria and Britain live consecutively. Next up, Channel 4 pick Bahrain (pick 7). The logic here is that it is simply the best timeslot left to pick from. In response, Sky pick Hungary (pick 8). The other choice is Australia, but Hungary is the much better timeslot and tends to pick up good numbers with it being the last race before the Summer shutdown. Plus, Sky may want to try and force Channel 4 to pick Australia knowing that it will be their first race, but let’s see if that tactic works in our predictions.

We are left in this position:

March 20th – Australia (Melbourne)
April 3rd – Bahrain (Sakhir) – Channel 4 (pick 7)
April 17th – China (Shanghai)
May 1st – Russia (Sochi)
May 15th – Spain (Barcelona) – Channel 4 (pick 17 – automatic)
May 29th – Monaco (Monaco) – Sky (pick 6)
June 12th – Canada (Montreal) – Sky (pick 5)
June 19th – Europe (Baku) – Channel 4 (pick 19 – automatic)
July 3rd – Austria (Red Bull Ring) – Sky (pick 20 – automatic)
July 10th – Britain (Silverstone) – Channel 4 (pick 1)
July 24th – Hungary (Budapest) – Sky (pick 8)
July 31st – Germany (Hockenheim)
August 28th – Belgium (Spa)
September 4th – Italy (Monza)
September 18th – Singapore (Marina Bay)
October 2nd – Malaysia (Sepang)
October 9th – Japan (Suzuka)
October 23rd – USA (Circuit of the Americas) – Sky (pick 4)
October 30th – Mexico (Mexico City) – Channel 4 (pick 3)
November 13th – Brazil (Interlagos) – Sky (pick 21 – automatic)
November 27th – Abu Dhabi (Yas Marina) – Channel 4 (pick 2)

I think at this point; Channel 4 will be looking for live early morning races where they can screen highlights/replays at a later time with adverts to a higher audience. Personally, Channel 4 pick Malaysia (pick 9). Malaysia is the best choice because of its unique timeslot. At 08:00, it means Channel 4 can screen it live and then broadcast highlights with adverts at around 15:00, so it is a win-win race for them. In response, Sky pick Russia (pick 10). It is either Russia or Italy, Italy is more prestigious, but Russia has a longer runtime and is therefore likely to bring in higher ratings. It also means that Channel 4 can now kill three birds with one stone.  Channel 4 pick Italy (pick 11). Italy is the shortest race on the calendar, so there will only be around 90 minutes of air time without adverts which makes it more attractive to the commercial station.

Furthermore, Channel 4 picking Italy means that Sky automatically get Singapore (pick 18). This is good news for Channel 4 because Singapore clashes with the Paralympic Games, it is not in Channel 4’s interests to have two of their biggest events clashing with each other. Having Singapore as a highlights race means that Channel 4 can have a live race elsewhere.

The schedule therefore looks like this:

March 20th – Australia (Melbourne)
April 3rd – Bahrain (Sakhir) – Channel 4 (pick 7)
April 17th – China (Shanghai)
May 1st – Russia (Sochi) – Sky (pick 10)
May 15th – Spain (Barcelona) – Channel 4 (pick 17 – automatic)
May 29th – Monaco (Monaco) – Sky (pick 6)
June 12th – Canada (Montreal) – Sky (pick 5)
June 19th – Europe (Baku) – Channel 4 (pick 19 – automatic)
July 3rd – Austria (Red Bull Ring) – Sky (pick 20 – automatic)
July 10th – Britain (Silverstone) – Channel 4 (pick 1)
July 24th – Hungary (Budapest) – Sky (pick 8)
July 31st – Germany (Hockenheim)
August 28th – Belgium (Spa)
September 4th – Italy (Monza) – Channel 4 (pick 11)
September 18th – Singapore (Marina Bay) – Sky (pick 18 – automatic)
October 2nd – Malaysia (Sepang) – Channel 4 (pick 9)
October 9th – Japan (Suzuka)
October 23rd – USA (Circuit of the Americas) – Sky (pick 4)
October 30th – Mexico (Mexico City) – Channel 4 (pick 3)
November 13th – Brazil (Interlagos) – Sky (pick 21 – automatic)
November 27th – Abu Dhabi (Yas Marina) – Channel 4 (pick 2)

With not many races left, Sky have no exclusivity in the first part of 2016, until Sky pick China (pick 12). It is 50/50 between China and Australia, but the latter has lost a lot of its potential with the race starting at 05:00 UK time.

Australia, Germany, Belgium and Japan are the four races left to choose from. Inevitably, Channel 4 pick Belgium (pick 13). The shorter the race, the more adverts Channel 4 can cram in around the race, so Belgium is a great race for them in that respect. It also means that Sky automatically get Germany (pick 16). The weekend of Germany clashes with Glorious Goodwood, so Channel 4 will be happy that Sky get Germany exclusively live. Which leaves Australia and Japan. As they have done every year since 2012, Sky pick Australia (pick 14), meaning Channel 4 pick Japan (pick 15).

Which leaves us with this final calendar:

March 20th – Australia (Melbourne) – Sky (pick 14)
April 3rd – Bahrain (Sakhir) – Channel 4 (pick 7)
April 17th – China (Shanghai) – Sky (pick 12)
May 1st – Russia (Sochi) – Sky (pick 10)
May 15th – Spain (Barcelona) – Channel 4 (pick 17 – automatic)
May 29th – Monaco (Monaco) – Sky (pick 6)
June 12th – Canada (Montreal) – Sky (pick 5)
June 19th – Europe (Baku) – Channel 4 (pick 19 – automatic)
July 3rd – Austria (Red Bull Ring) – Sky (pick 20 – automatic)
July 10th – Britain (Silverstone) – Channel 4 (pick 1)
July 24th – Hungary (Budapest) – Sky (pick 8)
July 31st – Germany (Hockenheim) – Sky (pick 16 – automatic)
August 28th – Belgium (Spa) – Channel 4 (pick 13)
September 4th – Italy (Monza) – Channel 4 (pick 11)
September 18th – Singapore (Marina Bay) – Sky (pick 18 – automatic)
October 2nd – Malaysia (Sepang) – Channel 4 (pick 9)
October 9th – Japan (Suzuka) – Channel 4 (pick 15)
October 23rd – USA (Circuit of the Americas) – Sky (pick 4)
October 30th – Mexico (Mexico City) – Channel 4 (pick 3)
November 13th – Brazil (Interlagos) – Sky (pick 21 – automatic)
November 27th – Abu Dhabi (Yas Marina) – Channel 4 (pick 2)

We should know the final picks early into the New Year, definitely within the next few weeks I imagine. But that is how I imagine the picks turning out.

Updated on December 26th, 2015.