Italian Grand Prix records highest rating since 1998

In a season where Formula 1’s television ratings are topsy-turvy, with only large gains and large falls seemingly on the agenda, both BBC and Sky will be pleased to know that the Italian Grand Prix falls into the former category. The race, won by Lewis Hamilton, recorded the highest rating since 1998. BBC One’s highlights programme at 17:35 averaged 3.57 million viewers (21% share), with Sky Sports F1’s live broadcast from 11:30 to 16:05 averaging a further 650,000 viewers (7.3% share), bringing the total to 4.22 million viewers. In 1998, the Grand Prix had 4.65 million viewers as viewers took to the Mika Hakkinen and Michael Schumacher title feud massively in that year. Since then, Italy has always been under 4 million, until last year when it had 4.17 million viewers. The short length does not really help it, after all I am looking at the programme averages with all the above figures. The reason it is the highest since 1998 I think falls down to several reasons.

The first one is that the Grand Prix is ‘made’ for highlights. That quote comes from Jake Humphrey, and although I disagree with the quote in principle (as I think that there really is nothing better than seeing it live), from a broadcasting perspective I can see where he is coming from. The Italian Grand Prix, traditionally is the shortest on the calendar which means that you don’t have to make many edits when it comes to the highlights show, compared to say with the European Grand Prix – Italy lasted 80 minutes, whereas Valencia back in June averaged 105 minutes. Fitting the latter in a 90 minute primetime slot would be difficult, normally it wouldn’t be, but I think most reading this would appreciate that Valencia was probably one of the best races of the season so far.

Secondly, there was not much competition around yesterday aside from the Paralympics, which would have helped both the highlights and the live shows as there was no Live Ford Super Sunday to go up against on Sky Sports 1. As I demonstrated last weekend, the football can take a chunk out of the Formula 1. Saying that I did expect Sky Sports F1’s figure to be slightly higher than 650,000, but the warm weather may have knocked a few viewers off it. The final reason is probably Eddie Jordan. Not specifically him, but his leak last Wednesday. Some may not agree with me here, but it does Formula 1 no good when it is out of the headlines for several weeks, hence why we had a low rating from Belgium. Maybe the BBC seen that and had Jordan leak information to bring Formula 1 back in the headlines and the viewers back to the sport. I know, it seems a little convenient the timing, but it’s just a thought as there was nothing Formula 1 related in the press over the Summer and no one had moved anywhere – surprisingly.

Qualifying had 2.1 million viewers (a 16.7% share) on BBC One, Sky Sports F1 had under 470,000 viewers, so it looks like Qualifying was down on last year’s 2.80 million viewers, but in line with the 2.47 million viewers recorded in 2010.

2012 ratings are sourced from the ITV Media website.

Eddie Jordan’s credibility

Lewis Hamilton will be moving to Mercedes in 2013, replacing Michael Schumacher. That, is not according to me, that, is according to Eddie Jordan on the BBC Sport website. Those three words, “according to Eddie Jordan” seems enough for the majority of people to completely dispel the story.

There are two particular stories that I recall where Jordan predicted something, one turned out to be true, whilst the other was made at the wrong place, and the wrong time. The first was in the immediate aftermath of Felipe Massa’s crash at the Qualifying session for the 2009 Hungarian Grand Prix. At the time his condition was unknown, and Jordan, live on air on BBC One made some fairly speculative and inaccurate comments. Jake Humphrey very quickly had to remind viewers that nothing concrete was known and that they had received no information on his condition.

The second prediction – and one more akin to the article today – concerns Michael Schumacher’s return to Mercedes following his botched return to Ferrari earlier in 2009. On November 20th, 2009, BBC put an article up on their website, which notes that Jordan believes (either himself, or he has ‘sources’ so to say within the Mercedes team) that Schumacher will return to Formula 1 with Mercedes. Interestingly, the article contains a denial from Sabine Kehm, Schumacher’s spokeswoman, who said that it is “highly unlikely – but never say never”. Just over a month later, however, the deal was confirmed.

Now, in relation to today’s story, McLaren have responded by saying “we have been told by Lewis Hamilton’s management team that the story is untrue”. Given how quick they have responded, after all the article went up less than two hours ago, it suggests that they were expecting this. Nevertheless, I’m not sure what we learn from that quote? I mean, Hamilton’s management team are not going to openly admit that the article is true, it is standard practice to slam it down, like with what Kehm did back in 2009. I’m not sure if McLaren would admit either if they expect Hamilton to exit the team, even if Hamilton’s management team say otherwise.

Either way, it is my opinion that the article put up by BBC today should not be dismissed, just because it is Eddie Jordan’s thoughts, opinions or sources. Will Hamilton join Mercedes? Time, shall tell…

Belgian Grand Prix slumps to five year ratings low

Formula 1’s difficult Summer ratings wise continued as the Belgian Grand Prix recorded the lowest rating for a Grand Prix race since the 2008 season. In terms of averages, from 12:10 to 15:15, BBC averaged 2.77 million viewers, a low 24 percent share of the total audience, while from 11:00 to 16:15, Sky Sports F1 averaged a very low 335,000 viewers. I’ll deal with the Sky Sports average first for those thinking that the low average is due to the long build-up.

For example purposes, assume the 11:00 to 11:30 portion averaged 50,000, which seems a reasonable number. That would mean that from 11:30 to 16:15, Sky Sports F1 averaged 360,000 viewers. That, along with BBC’s 2.77 million viewers averages 3.13 million viewers, which is still a low for the season so far. Using the 35.1 percent theory, then from 12:10 to 15:15, Sky Sports F1 averaged 486,000 viewers. Add that to the 2.77 million for BBC F1 and you get 3.26 million viewers. For the purposes of tracking the ratings in my spreadsheet, I will use the 3.10 million figure which comes from adding 2.77 million and 335,000 together, but in contrast to previous years for the Belgian Grand Prix:

– 2007: 2.56 million
– 2008: 3.68 million
– 2009: 3.38 million
– 2010: 4.08 million
– 2011: 3.76 million
– 2012: 3.26 million (direct comparison)/3.10 million (full programmes)

I know the above paragraph to some may seem tedious, but I am just putting the facts out there that, no matter which way you look at the ratings, that there is a drop in comparison to previous years. It is an undeniable fact that, irrespective of how you use the programme averages, that the Belgian Grand Prix average was the lowest since 2007. The peak yesterday of 4.58 million was the lowest since 2009, 2010 and 2011 both recorded peaks of over 5 million while 2009 had a peak of just under 4.5 million. That doesn’t mean 2009 did worse, arguably 2009 did better than yesterday, 2009 – as have all previous years – been on Bank Holiday weekends whereas yesterday was not, and if you remember both Jenson Button and Lewis Hamilton went out on lap 1 in 2009, no doubt removing some of the casual interest. The peak splits down as 3.69 million on BBC One and 889,000 on Sky Sports F1, which is a split of 80.6% versus 19.4%. That is closer than previous splits, the previous peak splits having been around 84% versus 16%.

As a comparison, the 3.13 million viewers that I have quoted in the second paragraph would make the Belgian Grand Prix the lowest rating Formula 1 race since the 2008 Japanese Grand Prix, while the 3.10 million viewer number would take you back to the 2008 European Grand Prix.

One factor for the low rating yesterday was tougher competition, firstly from the Paralympic Games. Normally, Channel 4 on a Sunday afternoon would probably struggle to get over 500,000 viewers, whereas yesterday it probably had three times that number, although I have seen no specifics regarding their afternoon average. Another factor, ironically has to be the football on Sky Sports 1. The first game, Liverpool vs Arsenal, from 13:00 to 15:30, averaged 1.33 million viewers in that time period.

So while the ratings were down, it is not a case of “it’s because of the new deal”, it is simply an unusual case of where there were two other big sporting occasions clashing with the Formula 1 which hurt it’s overall rating. That seems to be the situation constantly throughout the season so far, doesn’t it?

Scheduling: The Italian Grand Prix

The best double header of the season, without question, continues next weekend with the Italian Grand Prix at the wonderful Monza circuit. This is one of the races that BBC TV will be providing highlights only for, meaning that Sky Sports have exclusive live coverage of the weekend’s action.

One minor point to note, for those that watch is, is that GP3 Qualifying is on earlier than usual on Saturday, with Qualifying starting at 08:00 UK time instead of 08:45 UK time. The same also applies for the GP3 Race on Sunday, with the race beginning at 08:00 UK time instead of 08:25 UK time. The Radio Times website has the normal times, I am basing the below from what the official Formula1.com website says.

Away from TV, I have listed the BBC Radio times below as I usually do for when BBC TV is not live. For Italy, however, none of the practice sessions are live on BBC Radio due to the Paralympic Games, with only Qualifying and Race live on BBC Radio 5 Live. I imagine a link will be put up on the BBC F1 website for those wanting to listen, however.

For those of you wishing to whet your appetite, the BBC Red Button will have Classic Italian Grand Prix’s from Wednesday night onwards. The races that will be re-shown in extended highlights form are 1987, 1988, 1990, 1994 and 1995, thanks to the BBC’s Tom Bowker on Twitter for the information.

Thursday 6th September
14:00 to 14:45 – F1: Driver Press Conference (Sky Sports F1)

Friday 7th September
08:45 to 10:50 – F1: Practice 1 (Sky Sports F1)
10:55 to 11:35 – GP2: Practice (Sky Sports F1)
12:45 to 14:50 – F1: Practice 2 (Sky Sports F1)
14:50 to 15:40 – GP2: Qualifying (Sky Sports F1)
16:00 to 16:45 – F1: Team Press Conference (Sky Sports F1)
17:00 to 18:00 – The F1 Show (Sky Sports F1)
18:45 to 19:00 – Inside F1 (BBC News Channel)

Saturday 8th September
07:55 to 08:35 – GP3: Qualifying (Sky Sports F1)
09:45 to 11:10 – F1: Practice 3 (Sky Sports F1)
12:00 to 14:35 – F1: Qualifying (Sky Sports F1)
13:00 to 14:00 – F1: Qualifying (BBC Radio 5 Live)
14:35 to 16:05 – GP2: Race 1 (Sky Sports F1)
16:15 to 17:05 – GP3: Race 1 (Sky Sports F1)
17:15 to 18:35 – F1: Qualifying Highlights (BBC One)
18:45 to 19:00 – Inside F1 (BBC News Channel)

Sunday 9th September
07:55 to 08:45 – GP3: Race 2 (Sky Sports F1)
09:30 to 10:35 – GP2: Race 2 (Sky Sports F1)
11:30 to 16:05 – F1: Race (Sky Sports F1)
13:00 to 14:30 – F1: Race (BBC Radio 5 Live Sports Extra)
17:35 to 19:05 – F1: Race Highlights (BBC One)
19:05 to 20:05 – F1: Forum (BBC Red Button)

As always, the timings are subject to slight alterations, so I shall update this blog if and when that happens.

Update on September 5th: As a result on Jerome d’Ambrosio replacing Romain Grosjean at Lotus for Monza, Dani Clos will be alongside Will Buxton for GP2.

The ratings picture: The Verdict so Far

The final part of my mid-season Verdict so far Series focusses on the ratings picture for this year’s Formula One season. Due to the change in broadcasting rights, with Sky Sports taking over exclusive live coverage for ten races, a change in the television ratings was anticipated. But have the ratings gone down, or have they gone up?

Before I start though, complete clarity on the figures I use. All of the figures in the blog are programme averages, unless stated otherwise. This is because these are the figures most readily available, and I do not have industry access to the viewing figures. Therefore, I am relying purely on the figures I already have and those that are reported in the public domain. I also have the Formula 1 viewing figures going back to the early 1990’s, those can be sourced from Broadcast magazine.

Unfortunately, the viewing figures for this season reveal that Formula 1 viewing has decreased to a four year low, with an average of 3.91 million viewers across the first eleven races of this season. The figure consists of:

– Sky live and BBC highlights for Australia, Malaysia, Bahrain, Canada, Germany and Hungary
– Sky live, BBC live and BBC re-run for China
– Sky and BBC live for Spain, Monaco, Europe, Britain

With the exception of the Chinese Grand Prix earlier this year, every race has been down year-on-year. At this point I want to dispel a myth that this is due to Sky Sports F1’s longer build-up and post-race, thus distorting the figures year-on-year. That is false. Let us take the Spanish Grand Prix.

BBC had 3.49 million viewers for its broadcast. From 11:30 to 16:15*, Sky Sports F1 had 551,000 viewers, a 4.62 percent viewing share. With the 5-minute breakdown in hand, from 12:10 to 15:15, the typical BBC F1 broadcast length from last year, Sky Sports F1 had 744,000 viewers, a 6.09 percent viewing share. That’s a difference of 232,000 viewers, or 35.1 percent. Keep that number in mind.

* note: Sky’s programme went on until 16:45 due to the Williams fire incident, as I note above, I have access to that particular breakdown so have taken the 11:30 to 16:15 chunk only. Most of Sky’s broadcasts now end at 16:15, hence the 16:15 cut-off to give the most accurate figure.

Sky Sports F1’s live race day broadcasts have average 669,000 viewers this season. Extrapolate that up 35.1 percent, and you get 904,000 viewers. That is an increase of 235,000 viewers.

Add that to the 3.91 million viewers and you get 4.14 million viewers. Which is down on 2009, 2010 and 2011:

– 2009: 4.32 million
– 2010: 4.29 million
– 2011: 4.55 million
– 2012: 4.14 million

The figures are still down, but not as much as it appears. If you were to look at the first eleven races excluding Bahrain as that was not part of last years calendar, then you get:

Averages (Aus, Mal, Chn, Spa, Mon, Can, Eur, GB, Ger, Hun)
– 2009 – 4.29 million
– 2010 – 4.30 million
– 2011 – 4.54 million
– 2012 – 4.09 million

Again, there is a drop, a substantial drop on last year, but not much of a drop on 2009 and 2010. The consensus there seems to be that there is a drop of 2009, 2010 and 2011, albeit not as much as is touted around in the media.

If we are to compare further back, using data from 2000 onwards for Australia, Spain, Monaco, Britain, Germany and Hungary, we see the following:

Averages for the above six races
– 2000 – 4.30 million
– 2001 – 3.61 million
– 2002 – 3.32 million
– 2003 – 3.22 million
– 2004 – 2.95 million
– 2005 – 3.00 million
– 2006 – 2.73 million
– 2007 – 3.35 million
– 2008 – 3.68 million
– 2009 – 4.22 million
– 2010 – 4.28 million
– 2011 – 4.52 million
– 2012 – 3.83 million (or 4.06 million using the ‘35.1 percent’ above)

A similar method would be to look at the first elevent races only:

Averages for the first eleven races
– 2006 – 2.87 million
– 2007 – 3.58 million
– 2008 – 3.62 million
– 2009 – 4.29 million
– 2010 – 4.36 million
– 2011 – 4.62 million
– 2012 – 3.91 million (or 4.14 million using the ‘35.1 percent’ above)

The problem that I have is that after years of increases since 2006 is that ratings have dropped by at least 400,000 irrespective of which comparison you use. It does not matter which ratings comparisons you use or how you choose to interpret them or spin them, but the fact of the matter is that this season will be the lowest rated season since 2008, unless there is a big increase in the next three months.

Why? Being a broadcasting blog, the first reason you could argue is that the BBC and Sky deal is sending viewers away from the sport. It is quite possible that this is happening, with the casual fans not knowing which races are live and which are highlights, therefore not bothering to tune in. It may be a lack of promotion on the BBC side of things. Take next weekend’s Belgian Grand Prix, there have been dozens of adverts on Sky, yet I have only seen one advert on BBC. If you don’t promote things, then viewers may not be aware that it is on, therefore won’t tune in. Outside of the ramifications of the BBC and Sky deal, the Olympics and Euro 2012 argument could be brought in.

Historically, the Olympics has dented things badly. In 2008, the European Grand Prix had only 2.64 million viewers compared with 3.24 million viewers the previous year, while in 2004, the Hungarian Grand Prix recorded a programme average of 2.11 million viewers compared with 2.73 million viewers in 2003. So the olympics definitely does have a negative effect on Formula 1 ratings. As I have said multiple times in this blog, it is madness that FOM and FIA schedule races against major sporting events. They won’t win viewers, they will only lose them, so why do it? It confuses me. Back to this year, however, and Canada may have had its viewership slashed because of Sky exclusivity (an example of a race that needed terrestrial coverage), but on the other hand the European Grand Prix had its highest rating since 2000, while the British and Hungarian Grand Prix’s were down, but not by as much as I anticipated. Aside from that, Australia, Malaysia, Spain and Monaco were down versus 2011, and none of those races were influenced at all by the Olympics or Euro 2012.

Qualifying has not done too badly, in fact while the 2.38 million viewers average may be down on 2009 and 2011, it is in line with 2010, coincidentally another sporting year with the World Cup playing a part. There has been a major fluctuation though between events, Australia was 1.2 million viewers down on 2011, yet Bahrain had an average of 3.45 million viewers, benefiting from a primetime slot on BBC One. So the deal does have swings and roundabouts regarding viewership.

I suspect there are multiple causes to the race drop outside of broadcasting. Maybe viewers are finding the ‘random’ Formula 1 this season with Pirelli a turn-off? It is possible, I guess, along with DRS and KERS hurting the viewership as fans and casuals want to see more ‘pure’ racing. I don’t know, the pattern of low ratings may not be repeated across Europe, it may just be a UK thing, because of the new deal.

Moving onto practice, and for the European based races, Practice 1 has averaged 83,000 on Sky Sports F1, Practice 2 has averaged 82,000 and Practice 3 has averaged 130,000. Interestingly there is very little difference between the programme averages for practice in Sky exclusive weekends versus the joint BBC and Sky races (74k/85k/128k vs 82k/69k/120k) which suggests that either not many people watch BBC Red Button, or that very few people that watch the Red Button for practice choose to watch the Sky exclusive practice sessions as well. I know the “it’s only practice” argument can be bandied around, but I do think Sky would have been hoping for higher figures for their exclusive practice sessions.

I hope that the ratings in general increase back to 2011 levels for the final haul of the season now that the Olympics and Euro 2012 are over. There is no reason, really, why the ratings should not increase as the championship reaches its climax, and looks set to be resolved at a later stage compared to last season. It would look odd if the highest rated season in the UK since 1999 would be a season where it was actually a German that won the title…

To end the blog post, I thought it would be a good idea to look at the GP2 and GP3 Series ratings. While I do not have averages for the series’ so far, the series is not benefiting one bit from being on Sky Sports F1, take this from the Spanish Grand Prix Qualifying day:

12:00 – F1 Qualifying: 342k (4.0%)
* peak: 632k (6.7%) at 13:55
14:35 – GP2 Race 1: 62k (0.7%)
* peak: 106k (1.3%) at 14:35
16:15 – GP3 Race 1: 42k (0.4%)
* peak: 57k (0.6%) at 16:25

As someone pointed out to me on my blog a few weeks ago: Who’s James? Who’s Max? That is referring to James Calado and Max Chilton, of course. The GP2 and GP3 figures are not spectacular, and is not bringing in any extra viewers than what it would usually on British Eurosport 2, or ITV4 in the case of GP2 in 2008. GP2 races in 2008 on ITV4 typically had between 80,000 and 100,000 viewers, so the Sky viewership is slightly down on that.

That is it for the mid-Summer verdict on the blog. I hope you’ve enjoyed reading the pieces, and as always comments are welcome.

Note: All the figures quoted here are the averages for the whole race programme, not the race average as these figures are unavailable. Figures are mostly official figures from BARB and Broadcast magazine. While I have made comparisons and analysis of figures, I should note that I do not have every single ratings figure. The figures for that races that I am missing are:

1992 – Australia, San Marino, France, Portugal, Japan (live and both for AUS, JPN)
1993 – France (live), Japan (highlights)
1994 – Pacific (highlights), San Marino, France, Hungary, Japan (live)
1995 – Australia, Argentina, San Marino, Spain, Japan (all live)
1996 – Canada, Japan (all live)
1997 – Japan (live)
1998 – Australia,France, Japan (all live)
2000 – Malaysia (live and re-run), Japan (live)
2001 – Japan (live)
2003 – Malaysia; Japan (both live)
2004 – China (live)
2006 – China (live)

If anyone is reading and has any of them ratings, leave a comment. While this piece focusses primarily on the 2012 ratings picture, my April piece focussed on the ratings picture for the past twenty years. For anyone wishing to read that, please click here.