This Sunday marks the final round of the 2012 Formula One season, and as happened many times before, once again the championship race is heading down to the wire. Live from Interlagos, Brazil, on BBC One and Sky Sports F1, Sebastian Vettel and Fernando Alonso will battle it out to be crowned the 2012 World Drivers’ Champion.

Races in primetime, or on the fringes of primetime, and with the title on the line in the final race means that a large peak is guaranteed. Or is it? Normally yes, except the competition this Sunday looks tough and goes against the Formula One for multiple reasons.

But first, a bit of history. In the past seven years, including this year, Brazil has been the final round five times. And in those five years, the championship was decided in Brazil four times. In 2006, 2007 and 2008, Brazil was the final round and all three were title deciders:

Peak figures
– 2006 – 6.4 million (28% share) at 19:30
– 2007 – 10.4 million (50% share) at 18:30
– 2008 – 12.5 million (49% share) at 18:45 [13.1 million was the 5-minute peak]

Spot the major difference between 2006 and the latter two years? That is the difference between no British drivers in 2006 and one British driver in 2007 and 2008, fuelling huge peaks for the title deciders involving Lewis Hamilton. Whilst a 6.2 million peak back in 2006 was big for Formula 1 which was going through a rotten period ratings wise in the United Kingdom back then, nowadays a 6.4 million peak is not too much bigger than your typical peak for a European race.

Peak figures
– 2009 – 8.9 million (39% share) at 18:30
– 2010 – 5.9 million

2009 and 2010 were not at the end of the calendar, instead was both times the penultimate race of the season. 2009 was Jenson Button’s title winning race, which is why it peaked significantly higher than 2010, but even so was nearly 4 million viewers lower than 2008’s nail-biting decider. Although the 2010 season was decided in Abu Dhabi, it did not stop that particular broadcast hitting 7.2 million viewers at its peak.

Peak figures
– 2011 – 6.1 million [5-minute peak]

Last year had a 5-minute peak of 6.1 million viewers, which was not a title decider. So how will 2012 do? I think we are looking at a combined peak of about 6.1 million to 6.5 million viewers. Why?

Like last year, which went up against Liverpool vs Manchester City, this year is going up against Chelsea vs Manchester City which will again draw over 3 million peak viewers for Sky Sports. That match will knock a good 1.5 million viewers off the Formula 1 viewership. From Sky’s perspective, that is ridiculous scheduling on their behalf, but no doubt they may boast on Monday morning about having a combined 4 million viewers on Sky Sports 1 and Sky Sports F1.

Also, viewing figures have been lower this year than in previous seasons, which makes me think that the audience this Sunday could be lower. If it rains though that could change things and bring in more of a casual audience, as 2008’s dramatic finale did, although the lack of British title contenders means that a peak over 10 million is very, very unlikely.

In any case, the viewing figures on Monday morning will be interesting. I have added a poll for those wishing to predict the combined peak, so comment away!

The viewing figures for yesterday’s United States Grand Prix come in a smidgen under the Canadian Grand Prix ratings from June.

Live coverage of the race programme, screened on Sky Sports F1 from 17:30 to 22:30, averaged 856,000 viewers, a 3.3 percent share, which is slightly under the figure recorded in Canada which was just below 1 million viewers. BBC’s highlights coverage averaged 2.22 million viewers, again slightly under the 2.39 million viewers recorded for Canada in the 22:25 to 00:25 slot. The combined average is therefore around 3.0 million to 3.1 million viewers, a very disappointing figure for a primetime Formula 1 race. Looking at all of the averages from 2000 onwards for USA, all of them have been above 4 million viewers, except for 2000 which was screened live on ITV2 and 2006 which had 3.46 million viewers.

You could argue that a lot of people would be watching on Sky Go with it being a primetime race, but would that make up an extra million viewers? I am not so sure. There is definitely a ‘lost’ viewership somewhere. With both averages slightly below that of Canada, it would be a fair assumption to say that the peak was below the 4.87 million peak recorded for Canada. For what it is worth though, I believe the Canada figures are more acceptable than the USA figures because Canada was not a potential title decider and Canada was in the middle of the Summer of Sport so was lost in the shuffle. If the title had been won, it would have probably been the lowest title decider ratings since the days when the championship was decided in Japan.

The Qualifying ratings, and Sky’s practice ratings, can be found here.

Note: The ratings information comes from ITV Media and Digital Spy.

Update – The peak for Sky Sports F1 was 1.63 million (6.4% share) at 19:15. The BBC F1 peak was 2.82 million (15.9% share) at 22:35, meaning the combined peak is 4.45 million viewers. Have to say I am disappointed with the Sky peak, specifically the fact that it was at 19:15 and not towards the end of the race. The peak is not the largest of the season, either, that honour going to Canada’s 1.77 million, so as predicted the peak is slightly below that of Canada. It again shows the power that a terestrial channel has that a multichannel does not, Sky Sports F1 does not get casual viewers tuning in throughout the race, meaning it fails to gain a large peak at the end. Arguably 1.63 million is large for a multichannel, but not for Formula 1 and not for a potential title decider in primetime. That peak will probably also end up lower than the Ford Super Sunday game, which was between Fulham vs Sunderland.