The Twitter outlook

This weekend Formula 1 finally roars back into action with the Belgian Grand Prix. But before then, it is my August update of the Twitter outlook alongside my usual weekly Twitter posts.

Drivers
01 – 1,082,620 – Jenson Button (McLaren)
02 – 986,766 – Fernando Alonso (Ferrari)
03 – 983,404 – Lewis Hamilton (McLaren)
04 – 473,618 – Bruno Senna (Williams)
05 – 416,616 – Mark Webber (Red Bull)
06 – 253,191 – Sergio Perez (Sauber)
07 – 250,733 – Pastor Maldonaldo (Williams)
08 – 187,844 – Nico Rosberg (Mercedes)
09 – 169,780 – Heikki Kovalainen (Caterham)
10 – 165,797 – Pedro de la Rosa (HRT)
11 – 146,567 – Paul di Resta (Force India)
12 – 143,668 – Felipe Massa (Ferrari)
13 – 129,134 – Narain Karthikeyan (HRT)
14 – 88,523 – Vitaly Petrov (Caterham)
15 – 79,869 – Nico Hulkenberg (Force India)
16 – 79,321 – Timo Glock (Marussia)
17 – 68,643 – Kamui Kobayashi (Sauber)
18 – 65,319 – Romain Grosjean (Lotus)
19 – 41,606 – Daniel Ricciardo (Toro Rosso)
20 – 29,244 – Jean-Eric Vergne (Toro Rosso)
21 – 17,505 – Charles Pic (Marussia)

Despite it being a quiet month for racing, there are two changes since July’s big update, as Fernando Alonso has jumped Lewis Hamilton and Nico Hulkenberg has overtaken Timo Glock. Assuming Alonso starts making gains of over 30,000 followers per week like before the Summer break, then he should be over 1 million followers by this time next week.

Drivers – Increases
01 – 41,081 – Fernando Alonso (n/a)
02 – 29,759 – Lewis Hamilton (n/a)
03 – 25,617 – Jenson Button (n/a)
04 – 13,526 – Pastor Maldonaldo (up 4)
05 – 12,102 – Bruno Senna (n/a)
06 – 11,934 – Mark Webber (down 2)
07 – 10,350 – Sergio Perez (down 1)
Average driver = 9,227
08 – 9,794 – Felipe Massa (down 1)
09 – 4,859 – Pedro de la Rosa (n/a)
10 – 4,792 – Narain Karthikeyan (up 4)
11 – 4,460 – Vitaly Petrov (up 6)
12 – 4,414 – Paul di Resta (down 1)
13 – 4,377 – Nico Rosberg (down 3)
14 – 4,001 – Romain Grosjean (down 2)
15 – 3,697 – Heikki Kovalainen (down 2)
16 – 2,080 – Kamui Kobayashi (n/a)
17 – 1,928 – Nico Hulkenberg (up 1)
18 – 1,623 – Daniel Ricciardo (down 3)
19 – 1,309 – Timo Glock (n/a)
20 – 1,193 – Jean-Eric Vergne (n/a)
21 – 865 – Charles Pic (n/a)

The up and down positions above is a comparison to their position in the same table last month. The raw values, though, are not directly comparable as July was a five week month, whereas August is a four week month. Pastor Maldonaldo and Vitaly Petrov are the drivers’ recording the biggest gains in comparison to their July position, although in Petrov’s case he is in a massive gaggle from 9th onwards, only a thousand followers separate 9th and 14th! Maybe it suggests that the first eight have a large fanbase, whereas the other drivers’ don’t have a significant fanbase? Just a thought…

Teams
01 – 319,301 – Ferrari
02 – 220,983 – McLaren
03 – 146,532 – Red Bull
04 – 142,671 – Mercedes
05 – 128,405 – Lotus
06 – 83,663 – Caterham
07 – 77,629 – Marussia
08 – 73,654 – Force India
09 – 72,635 – Williams
10 – 69,540 – Sauber
11 – 58,327 – HRT
12 – 47,775 – Toro Rosso

Red Bull have moved in front of Mercedes, as predicted last month, while Force India and Williams exchange positions again.

Teams – Increases
01 – 6,674 – Ferrari (n/a)
02 – 6,574 – Red Bull (n/a)
03 – 4,985 – McLaren (n/a)
04 – 4,270 – Lotus (n/a)
Average team = 3,246
05 – 2,700 – Mercedes (up 2)
06 – 2,613 – Sauber (down 1)
07 – 2,545 – Marussia (down 1)
08 – 2,515 – Force India (up 3)
09 – 1,789 – Caterham (up 1)
10 – 1,620 – HRT (down 2)
11 – 1,430 – Toro Rosso (up 1)
12 – 1,232 – Williams (down 3)

After moving up in July, Williams again record the lowest increase of the month, as they did in June.

Driver and Team statistics as of Monday 27th August 2012.

The ratings picture: The Verdict so Far

The final part of my mid-season Verdict so far Series focusses on the ratings picture for this year’s Formula One season. Due to the change in broadcasting rights, with Sky Sports taking over exclusive live coverage for ten races, a change in the television ratings was anticipated. But have the ratings gone down, or have they gone up?

Before I start though, complete clarity on the figures I use. All of the figures in the blog are programme averages, unless stated otherwise. This is because these are the figures most readily available, and I do not have industry access to the viewing figures. Therefore, I am relying purely on the figures I already have and those that are reported in the public domain. I also have the Formula 1 viewing figures going back to the early 1990’s, those can be sourced from Broadcast magazine.

Unfortunately, the viewing figures for this season reveal that Formula 1 viewing has decreased to a four year low, with an average of 3.91 million viewers across the first eleven races of this season. The figure consists of:

– Sky live and BBC highlights for Australia, Malaysia, Bahrain, Canada, Germany and Hungary
– Sky live, BBC live and BBC re-run for China
– Sky and BBC live for Spain, Monaco, Europe, Britain

With the exception of the Chinese Grand Prix earlier this year, every race has been down year-on-year. At this point I want to dispel a myth that this is due to Sky Sports F1’s longer build-up and post-race, thus distorting the figures year-on-year. That is false. Let us take the Spanish Grand Prix.

BBC had 3.49 million viewers for its broadcast. From 11:30 to 16:15*, Sky Sports F1 had 551,000 viewers, a 4.62 percent viewing share. With the 5-minute breakdown in hand, from 12:10 to 15:15, the typical BBC F1 broadcast length from last year, Sky Sports F1 had 744,000 viewers, a 6.09 percent viewing share. That’s a difference of 232,000 viewers, or 35.1 percent. Keep that number in mind.

* note: Sky’s programme went on until 16:45 due to the Williams fire incident, as I note above, I have access to that particular breakdown so have taken the 11:30 to 16:15 chunk only. Most of Sky’s broadcasts now end at 16:15, hence the 16:15 cut-off to give the most accurate figure.

Sky Sports F1’s live race day broadcasts have average 669,000 viewers this season. Extrapolate that up 35.1 percent, and you get 904,000 viewers. That is an increase of 235,000 viewers.

Add that to the 3.91 million viewers and you get 4.14 million viewers. Which is down on 2009, 2010 and 2011:

– 2009: 4.32 million
– 2010: 4.29 million
– 2011: 4.55 million
– 2012: 4.14 million

The figures are still down, but not as much as it appears. If you were to look at the first eleven races excluding Bahrain as that was not part of last years calendar, then you get:

Averages (Aus, Mal, Chn, Spa, Mon, Can, Eur, GB, Ger, Hun)
– 2009 – 4.29 million
– 2010 – 4.30 million
– 2011 – 4.54 million
– 2012 – 4.09 million

Again, there is a drop, a substantial drop on last year, but not much of a drop on 2009 and 2010. The consensus there seems to be that there is a drop of 2009, 2010 and 2011, albeit not as much as is touted around in the media.

If we are to compare further back, using data from 2000 onwards for Australia, Spain, Monaco, Britain, Germany and Hungary, we see the following:

Averages for the above six races
– 2000 – 4.30 million
– 2001 – 3.61 million
– 2002 – 3.32 million
– 2003 – 3.22 million
– 2004 – 2.95 million
– 2005 – 3.00 million
– 2006 – 2.73 million
– 2007 – 3.35 million
– 2008 – 3.68 million
– 2009 – 4.22 million
– 2010 – 4.28 million
– 2011 – 4.52 million
– 2012 – 3.83 million (or 4.06 million using the ‘35.1 percent’ above)

A similar method would be to look at the first elevent races only:

Averages for the first eleven races
– 2006 – 2.87 million
– 2007 – 3.58 million
– 2008 – 3.62 million
– 2009 – 4.29 million
– 2010 – 4.36 million
– 2011 – 4.62 million
– 2012 – 3.91 million (or 4.14 million using the ‘35.1 percent’ above)

The problem that I have is that after years of increases since 2006 is that ratings have dropped by at least 400,000 irrespective of which comparison you use. It does not matter which ratings comparisons you use or how you choose to interpret them or spin them, but the fact of the matter is that this season will be the lowest rated season since 2008, unless there is a big increase in the next three months.

Why? Being a broadcasting blog, the first reason you could argue is that the BBC and Sky deal is sending viewers away from the sport. It is quite possible that this is happening, with the casual fans not knowing which races are live and which are highlights, therefore not bothering to tune in. It may be a lack of promotion on the BBC side of things. Take next weekend’s Belgian Grand Prix, there have been dozens of adverts on Sky, yet I have only seen one advert on BBC. If you don’t promote things, then viewers may not be aware that it is on, therefore won’t tune in. Outside of the ramifications of the BBC and Sky deal, the Olympics and Euro 2012 argument could be brought in.

Historically, the Olympics has dented things badly. In 2008, the European Grand Prix had only 2.64 million viewers compared with 3.24 million viewers the previous year, while in 2004, the Hungarian Grand Prix recorded a programme average of 2.11 million viewers compared with 2.73 million viewers in 2003. So the olympics definitely does have a negative effect on Formula 1 ratings. As I have said multiple times in this blog, it is madness that FOM and FIA schedule races against major sporting events. They won’t win viewers, they will only lose them, so why do it? It confuses me. Back to this year, however, and Canada may have had its viewership slashed because of Sky exclusivity (an example of a race that needed terrestrial coverage), but on the other hand the European Grand Prix had its highest rating since 2000, while the British and Hungarian Grand Prix’s were down, but not by as much as I anticipated. Aside from that, Australia, Malaysia, Spain and Monaco were down versus 2011, and none of those races were influenced at all by the Olympics or Euro 2012.

Qualifying has not done too badly, in fact while the 2.38 million viewers average may be down on 2009 and 2011, it is in line with 2010, coincidentally another sporting year with the World Cup playing a part. There has been a major fluctuation though between events, Australia was 1.2 million viewers down on 2011, yet Bahrain had an average of 3.45 million viewers, benefiting from a primetime slot on BBC One. So the deal does have swings and roundabouts regarding viewership.

I suspect there are multiple causes to the race drop outside of broadcasting. Maybe viewers are finding the ‘random’ Formula 1 this season with Pirelli a turn-off? It is possible, I guess, along with DRS and KERS hurting the viewership as fans and casuals want to see more ‘pure’ racing. I don’t know, the pattern of low ratings may not be repeated across Europe, it may just be a UK thing, because of the new deal.

Moving onto practice, and for the European based races, Practice 1 has averaged 83,000 on Sky Sports F1, Practice 2 has averaged 82,000 and Practice 3 has averaged 130,000. Interestingly there is very little difference between the programme averages for practice in Sky exclusive weekends versus the joint BBC and Sky races (74k/85k/128k vs 82k/69k/120k) which suggests that either not many people watch BBC Red Button, or that very few people that watch the Red Button for practice choose to watch the Sky exclusive practice sessions as well. I know the “it’s only practice” argument can be bandied around, but I do think Sky would have been hoping for higher figures for their exclusive practice sessions.

I hope that the ratings in general increase back to 2011 levels for the final haul of the season now that the Olympics and Euro 2012 are over. There is no reason, really, why the ratings should not increase as the championship reaches its climax, and looks set to be resolved at a later stage compared to last season. It would look odd if the highest rated season in the UK since 1999 would be a season where it was actually a German that won the title…

To end the blog post, I thought it would be a good idea to look at the GP2 and GP3 Series ratings. While I do not have averages for the series’ so far, the series is not benefiting one bit from being on Sky Sports F1, take this from the Spanish Grand Prix Qualifying day:

12:00 – F1 Qualifying: 342k (4.0%)
* peak: 632k (6.7%) at 13:55
14:35 – GP2 Race 1: 62k (0.7%)
* peak: 106k (1.3%) at 14:35
16:15 – GP3 Race 1: 42k (0.4%)
* peak: 57k (0.6%) at 16:25

As someone pointed out to me on my blog a few weeks ago: Who’s James? Who’s Max? That is referring to James Calado and Max Chilton, of course. The GP2 and GP3 figures are not spectacular, and is not bringing in any extra viewers than what it would usually on British Eurosport 2, or ITV4 in the case of GP2 in 2008. GP2 races in 2008 on ITV4 typically had between 80,000 and 100,000 viewers, so the Sky viewership is slightly down on that.

That is it for the mid-Summer verdict on the blog. I hope you’ve enjoyed reading the pieces, and as always comments are welcome.

Note: All the figures quoted here are the averages for the whole race programme, not the race average as these figures are unavailable. Figures are mostly official figures from BARB and Broadcast magazine. While I have made comparisons and analysis of figures, I should note that I do not have every single ratings figure. The figures for that races that I am missing are:

1992 – Australia, San Marino, France, Portugal, Japan (live and both for AUS, JPN)
1993 – France (live), Japan (highlights)
1994 – Pacific (highlights), San Marino, France, Hungary, Japan (live)
1995 – Australia, Argentina, San Marino, Spain, Japan (all live)
1996 – Canada, Japan (all live)
1997 – Japan (live)
1998 – Australia,France, Japan (all live)
2000 – Malaysia (live and re-run), Japan (live)
2001 – Japan (live)
2003 – Malaysia; Japan (both live)
2004 – China (live)
2006 – China (live)

If anyone is reading and has any of them ratings, leave a comment. While this piece focusses primarily on the 2012 ratings picture, my April piece focussed on the ratings picture for the past twenty years. For anyone wishing to read that, please click here.

Scheduling: The Belgian Grand Prix

The Formula One break has come and gone. The drivers and teams are back from their holidays, and it is time to one of the best, if not the best motor racing circuit in the world. Spa Francorchamps in the Ardennes forest in Belgium. Gone are all the BBC and Sky changes from before the Summer break, as this weekend and for the foreseeable future both sides are at full strength, with Jake Humphrey back for BBC, and Anthony Davidson back for Sky Sports F1. And, for the first time since the British Grand Prix, both BBC and Sky are live, with Sky having an extended two hour build-up. Below are all the scheduling details that you need:

Thursday 30th August
14:00 to 14:45 – F1: Driver Press Conference (Sky Sports F1)

Friday 31st August
08:45 to 10:50 – F1: Practice 1 (Sky Sports F1)
08:55 to 10:35 – F1: Practice 1 (BBC Red Button)
10:55 to 11:35 – GP2: Practice (Sky Sports F1)
12:45 to 14:50 – F1: Practice 2 (Sky Sports F1)
12:55 to 14:35 – F1: Practice 2 (BBC Red Button)
14:50 to 15:40 – GP2: Qualifying (Sky Sports F1)
16:00 to 16:45 – F1: Team Press Conference (Sky Sports F1)
17:00 to 18:00 – The F1 Show (Sky Sports F1)
18:45 to 19:00 – Inside F1 (BBC News Channel)

Saturday 1st September
08:40 to 09:20 – GP3: Qualifying (Sky Sports F1)
09:45 to 11:15 – F1: Practice 3 (Sky Sports F1)
09:55 to 11:05 – F1: Practice 3 (BBC Red Button)
12:00 to 14:35 – F1: Qualifying (Sky Sports F1)
12:10 to 14:30 – F1: Qualifying (BBC One)
14:35 to 16:00 – GP2: Race 1 (Sky Sports F1)
16:15 to 17:05 – GP3: Race 1 (Sky Sports F1)
18:45 to 19:00 – Inside F1 (BBC News Channel)

Sunday 2nd September
08:20 to 09:05 – GP3: Race 2 (Sky Sports F1)
09:30 to 10:35 – GP2: Race 2 (Sky Sports F1)
11:00 to 16:15 – F1: Race (Sky Sports F1)
12:10 to 15:15 – F1: Race (BBC One)
15:15 to 16:15 – F1: Forum (BBC Red Button)
19:30 to 22:00 – IndyCars: Baltimore (Sky Sports Red Button)

As always, if anything changes I shall update this blog if necessary.

Update on 30th August: A programme featuring Pastor Maldonaldo will air after the race on Sunday, details of which are here.

The Twitter outlook

There may be one significant change in the drivers’ table, but that didn’t stop the average increase numbers hitting record lows, with an average increase of 1,956 followers for the 21 drivers active on Twitter. With just ten days to go to Belgium (phew!), here’s the Twitter numbers that you need:

Drivers – The Top 10
01 – 1,077,218 – Jenson Button (McLaren)
02 – 977,311 – Fernando Alonso (Ferrari)
03 – 976,948 – Lewis Hamilton (McLaren)
04 – 471,038 – Bruno Senna (Williams)
05 – 413,866 – Mark Webber (Red Bull)
06 – 251,310 – Sergio Perez (Sauber)
07 – 247,773 – Pastor Maldonaldo (Williams)
08 – 186,629 – Nico Rosberg (Mercedes)
09 – 168,833 – Heikki Kovalainen (Caterham)
10 – 164,671 – Pedro de la Rosa (HRT)

Drivers – Biggest Increases
01 – 9,126 – Fernando Alonso
02 – 6,445 – Lewis Hamilton
03 – 3,757 – Jenson Button
04 – 2,803 – Mark Webber
05 – 2,730 – Bruno Senna

Drivers – Smallest Increases
01 – 202 – Charles Pic
02 – 264 – Timo Glock
03 – 309 – Jean-Eric Vergne
04 – 346 – Daniel Ricciardo
05 – 439 – Nico Hulkenberg

Thanks to gaining three more thousand followers than Lewis Hamilton, Fernando Alonso is now in second place in the drivers’ table! At the beginning of July, I predicted that Alonso would overtake Hamilton in the Summer break and that is exactly what has materialised.

Teams – The Top 10
01 – 317,786 – Ferrari
02 – 219,764 – McLaren
03 – 145,182 – Red Bull
04 – 141,913 – Mercedes
05 – 127,382 – Lotus
06 – 83,147 – Caterham
07 – 76,935 – Marussia
08 – 72,961 – Force India
09 – 72,450 – Williams
10 – 68,576 – Sauber

Teams – Biggest Increases
01 – 1,625 – Red Bull
02 – 1,604 – Ferrari
03 – 1,047 – McLaren

Teams – Smallest Increases
01 – 180 – Williams
02 – 354 – Toro Rosso
03 – 385 – Sauber

Williams and Force India swap places again, something I expect to continue until the season ends. Sauber makes its first appearance in the bottom three as well. One thing that can influence the placings in the Summer break is how often the drivers and teams tweet, some may shut up shop while others may choose to continue tweeting. In the case of Sauber, they went on holiday from the 4th to the 18th August, with a tweet on the 18th wishing Chelsea good look, followed by more tweets yesterday.

Driver and Team statistics as of Monday 20th August 2012.

Sky Sports dumps IndyCars behind the Red Button… again

We’ve been here before… and it looks like we’re going here again. As announced by Keith Huewen on Twitter, next Sunday’s IndyCar Series race from Sonoma is again being dumped behind the Red Button from 19:30. Meanwhile, over on Sky Sports F1, they have the Belgian Grand Prix. The remaining Sky Sports channels at 19:30 have:

– Sky Sports 1: Live Spanish Football (18:55 to 23:00)
– Sky Sports 2: Live Super League (18:30 to 21:00)
– Sky Sports 3: Live US Open Tennis (16:00 to 00:00)
– Sky Sports 4: Live PGA Tour Golf (18:00 to 23:00)

With Sky Sports F1’s Sunday schedule is as follows:

Sunday 2nd September 2012 – Sky Sports F1
11:00 – Live Belgian Grand Prix
16:15 – Inside Track: Pastor Maldonaldo
16:45 – GP2: Belgian Race 2 (R)
17:50 – ten minute filler
18:00 – Legends: Murray Walker (R)
18:30 – Inside Track: Pastor Maldonaldo (R)
19:00 – Belgian Grand Prix Highlights
20:30 – Legends: Alan Jones (R)
21:00 – Belgian Grand Prix Highlights
22:30 – Inside Track: Pastor Maldonaldo (R)

So, why can’t the schedule run like this?

11:00 – Live Belgian Grand Prix
16:30 – Inside Track: Pastor Maldonaldo
16:55 – GP2: Belgian Race 2 (R)
18:00 – Belgian Grand Prix Highlights
19:30 – Live IndyCar Series
22:00 – Belgian Grand Prix Highlights

It is as if the schedulers don’t communicate with one another. Yet again, this is Sky treating IndyCars with gross incompetence. Common sense says to anyone that if Sky Sports 1, 2, 3 and 4 all have live programming on, then you put it on Sky Sports F1. There is nothing illogical about that, it is the most sensible and obvious thing to do. Plus, give the IndyCar a bit of publicity during the F1 programme, and the job is done.

I’ve wrote multiple times about poor ratings for the IndyCar Series, it needs to be on Sky Sports F1 with more promotion, and putting it behind the Red Button helps no one. The more eye-balls, the better.

To finish off, here are some other IndyCar related pieces I’ve written on this subject:

– April 26th – where common sense did actually prevail
– May 23rd – the benefits of putting Indy 500 on Sky Sports F1
– June 21st – Sky’s IndyCar scheduling this weekend

It is quite ironic how earlier I pushed my latest Verdict post online that included a paragraph on IndyCars and it being put on Sky Sports F1, and then a few hours later we find out that the penultimate race of the championship next weekend will be on behind the Red Button. Disappointing.

Update on August 30th: I’ve updated the above schedules as a result of a Pastor Maldonaldo one-off programme being announced.