A decade since the runaway Schumacher in 2002

Ten years ago today, at the 2002 French Grand Prix, Michael Schumacher clinched his fifth Formula One Drivers’ Championship. Aside from the fact that his championship winning drive helped him equal Juan Manuel Fangio’s record of five championship titles, his win was in Round 11 of 17 of the 2002 season. Or, to put it another way, there was still a third of the season left and there was six races left to win.

The people in Italy and Germany may have been very happy, but television bosses around the world were not, as all they seen was slumping ratings. And that too was evident here in the UK. During that season, a British driver only won a race once, that being David Coulthard in the Monaco Grand Prix where Schumacher finished second.

All but three race in the 2002 season recorded a ratings decline compared with the 2001 season, the only three races to record an improvement were Spain, Monaco and Europe. Starting off in Australia, the season opener had 3.41 million viewers, shedding over 1 million viewers compared with 2001. Even more surprising for me was that both the live showing and repeat showings were down, despite the multiple car collision that began that Grand Prix. I do remember the newspapers the next day having a five or six page spread with just full page spreads of pictures of the carnage that occurred from the first corner crash.

Moving onto Malaysia, and the ratings were steady year-on-year thanks to Jenson Button’s near podium and Michael Schumacher’s clash with Juan Pablo Montoya. Only a 30,000 viewer dip was recorded for Malaysia, which in the grand scheme of things is fairly negligible. The Brazilian Grand Prix did fairly well thanks to a battle to the end between the Schumacher brothers, recording a dip of 260,000, but still with a primetime viewership of nearly 6 million viewers.

San Marino, however, recorded the first big dip of the European season though, shedding 750,000 viewers on the previous year, with a rating of 3.43 million viewers. Despite Spain being a Schumacher walkover, that race recorded a slight rise, the first of the season, with a rise of 30,000 viewers. And then, we come onto Austria. If you are a Formula One fan, you know what happened here. Unsurprisingly, Austria seen a decline of 170,000 viewers compared with 2001.

Heading into the early part of the Summer though, the ratings seemed to zig-zag somewhat, Monaco and Europe actually increased despite the Austria fiasco, while Canada and Britain decreased. The block of four altogether had a decrease of 110,000 viewers, in line with the decrease for the France Grand Prix. Which, as I outlined above, is when viewers began to tune out in the droves. If you are a TV boss, how can you promote six races where there is nothing to fight for? You can’t. You could focus on the Constructors’ Championship battle, but fact of the matter is that the casual viewers do not really care about that, and therefore concentrating on that will do nothing for your viewership. It was damage limitation.

From that point onwards, every race recorded a decline compared with 2001. Both the Belgian and United States Grand Prix’s recorded declines of over 1 million viewers while the Hungarian and German Grand Prix’s recorded hefty declines as well. In order:

Top 6 declines – 2001 vs 2002
– 1.25 million – Belgian
– 1.16 million – United States
– 1.01 million – Australia
– 0.75 million – San Marino
– 0.61 million – Hungary
– 0.47 million – Germany

The US Grand Prix decline was particularly damaging, with it being one of only three races in primetime on ITV1, so you can imagine their reaction when they noticed they had a ‘dud’ race in primetime. Nowadays TV bosses are glad when the championship race goes to the final few races. Because tight championship battles makes people change the channel and watch Formula 1. And that’s what they want. They don’t want things like 2002 every year. Because it is a turn off. Plain and simple.

Did you watch every race in 2002? I did. Somehow. As always, comments and thoughts are welcome.

Scheduling: The Hungarian Grand Prix

From Germany, it is a frantic rush as the teams’ pack up quickly ready to hop over to Hungary for the Hungarian Grand Prix, part of the third double header so far this season.

In terms of the BBC and Sky personnel, I believe it is status quo compared to Germany, the only difference being that Natalie Pinkham is back after her wedding. The schedule as always, is below, although I’m unsure if Inside F1 will actually air on Friday 27th July due to build-up to the Olympics Opening Ceremony. Qualifying is on BBC Two, with the Race on BBC One, both highlights of course.

All of the radio coverage is on 5 Live Sports Extra, again, due to the Olympics coverage. Ben Edwards is the commentator for Friday, with James Allen back for Saturday and Sunday.

Thursday 26th July
14:00 to 14:45 – F1: Driver Press Conference (Sky Sports F1)

Friday 27th July
08:45 to 10:50 – F1: Practice 1 (Sky Sports F1)
08:55 to 10:35 – F1: Practice 1 (BBC Radio 5 Live Sports Extra)
10:50 to 11:30 – GP2: Practice (Sky Sports F1)
12:45 to 14:55 – F1: Practice 2 (Sky Sports F1)
12:55 to 14:35 – F1: Practice 2 (BBC Radio 5 Live Sports Extra)
14:55 to 15:35 – GP2: Qualifying (Sky Sports F1)
16:00 to 16:45 – F1: Team Press Conference (Sky Sports F1)
17:00 to 18:00 – The F1 Show (Sky Sports F1)
18:45 to 19:00 – Inside F1 (BBC News Channel)

Saturday 28th July
08:40 to 09:20 – GP3: Qualifying (Sky Sports F1)
09:45 to 11:10 – F1: Practice 3 (Sky Sports F1)
09:55 to 11:05 – F1: Practice 3 (BBC Radio 5 Live Sports Extra)
12:00 to 14:35 – F1: Qualifying (Sky Sports F1)
12:55 to 14:05 – F1: Qualifying (BBC Radio 5 Live Sports Extra)
14:35 to 16:05 – GP2: Race 1 (Sky Sports F1)
16:15 to 17:10 – GP3: Race 1 (Sky Sports F1)
17:15 to 18:30 – F1: Qualifying Highlights (BBC Two and BBC HD)

Sunday 29th July
08:20 to 09:10 – GP3: Race 2 (Sky Sports F1)
09:30 to 10:35 – GP2: Race 2 (Sky Sports F1)
11:30 to 16:15 – F1: Race (Sky Sports F1)
12:45 to 15:00 – F1: Race (BBC Radio 5 Live Sports Extra)
17:00 to 18:30 – F1: Race Highlights (BBC One)
18:30 to 19:30 – F1: Forum (BBC Red Button)

As always, the timings are subject to slight alterations, so I shall update this blog if and when that happens.

The Twitter outlook

The first thing I need to note for this week’s edition of the Twitter outlook is that the counters were done yesterday morning around about 09:00. There’s no real reason for this, apart from the fact that I completely forgot to do it on Monday! Now that I’ve got that disclaimer out of the way, here is this weeks’ figures:

Drivers – The Top 10
01 – 1,031,093 – Jenson Button (McLaren)
02 – 909,135 – Lewis Hamilton (McLaren)
03 – 857,861 – Fernando Alonso (Ferrari)
04 – 450,926 – Bruno Senna (Williams)
05 – 392,526 – Mark Webber (Red Bull)
06 – 233,272 – Sergio Perez (Sauber)
07 – 230,043 – Pastor Maldonaldo (Williams)
08 – 178,778 – Nico Rosberg (Mercedes)
09 – 161,803 – Heikki Kovalainen (Caterham)
10 – 155,144 – Pedro de la Rosa (HRT)

Drivers – Biggest Increases
01 – 34,176 – Fernando Alonso
02 – 10,934 – Mark Webber
03 – 10,537 – Lewis Hamilton
04 – 8,141 – Jenson Button
05 – 4,386 – Bruno Senna

Drivers – Smallest Increases
01 – 544 – Charles Pic
02 – 588 – Jean-Eric Vergne
03 – 758 – Timo Glock
04 – 844 – Nico Hulkenberg
05 – 992 – Daniel Ricciardo

Thanks to another 10,000 follower gain, Lewis Hamilton has broken the 900,000 follower barrier, only the second current Formula 1 driver to do so, the other being Jenson Button. Elsewhere, Sergio Perez has moved further ahead of Pastor Maldonaldo, while Charles Pic moves back to top of the smallest increase chart.

Teams – The Top 10
01 – 303,762 – Ferrari
02 – 210,306 – McLaren
03 – 137,456 – Mercedes
04 – 133,789 – Red Bull
05 – 119,169 – Lotus
06 – 80,374 – Caterham
07 – 73,165 – Marussia
08 – 69,789 – Williams
09 – 69,419 – Force India
10 – 64,052 – Sauber

Teams – Biggest Increases
02 – 2,530 – Red Bull
01 – 2,389 – Ferrari
03 – 2,130 – McLaren

Teams – Smallest Increases
01 – 154 – Force India
02 – 602 – Toro Rosso
03 – 635 – HRT

The most interesting statistic this week comes down here, as Red Bull for the first time since I started tracking the outlook had the biggest increase of all the teams, with Ferrari in second place. This is the second week in a row that they have shown big gains, as last week they recorded a bigger gain than McLaren. As a team, though, they are still some way from overtaking McLaren in the main chart.

At the bottom of the chart, I have a feeling I made a mistake or a typo with Force India’s number last week, almost certainly their gain last week of 1,691 was a bit higher than what it should have been. However, if you look at the total gain for the past two weeks, the gain is still the second lowest, with only Toro Rosso recording lower.

Driver and Team statistics as of Tuesday 17th July 2012.

Sky Sports F1 – Top 10 ratings (week ending 8th July, 2012)

From BARB:

1 – 455k – Live British Grand Prix (Sunday, 11:00)
2 – 336k – Live British Grand Prix: Qualifying (Saturday, 12:00)
3 – 160k – Live British Grand Prix: Practice 3 (Saturday, 09:45)
4 – 122k – GP Classics: 1964 European Grand Prix (Saturday, 11:19)
5 – 97k – Live British Grand Prix: Practice 1 (Friday, 09:45)
6 – 78k – The F1 Show (Friday, 20:00)
7 – 72k – British Grand Prix Highlights (Sunday, 19:00)
8 – 72k – Live British Grand Prix: Practice 2 (Friday, 13:45)
9 – 62k – GP Classics: 11th GP D’Europe (Sunday, 10:42)
10 – 54k – Live British Grand Prix: GP2 Sprint Race (Sunday, 09:35)

The main race programme for Sky was notably low, due to their extended build-up, hence the extra half hour dragging down the overall rating. Outside of their live F1 programming, The F1 Show did very well, I think that is their highest rating for The F1 Show during a race weekend. Also noticeable is how well the classic F1 did in between practice three and Qualifying, so definitely some good scheduling there.

Finally, it is pleasing to see the live GP2 Sprint Race making Sky Sports F1’s top 10 for the first time, and only 18,000 viewers behind practice two. The channel reach was 2.506 million this week, which is more significant than usual because it is their highest so far this year when that particular race has been live also on BBC.

On BBC, in the official ratings, 2.03 million watched Qualifying on BBC Two and BBC HD, while 3.29 million watched the race from 12:55 on BBC Two and HD.

The truths and the untruths

The Daily Telegraph have this morning published an article written by Christian Sylt and Caroline Reid with the headline, and I quote “BBC saves £150m in Formula 1 deal with Sky”. How accurate is that? The answer is, not very much.

As I did with the Daily Mail article concerning Simon Lazenby here, and as I did with The Guardian article here, I will dissect the article. As always, there are some parts of the article which are true, and there are some which appears to prove that the writers have not done their research.

The first bug-bear for me is when the article claims that Sky Sports are paying £25 million for Formula 1 and BBC are paying £7 million. Both figures look low, especially when you consider that the figure totals £32 million. Let us go back to 2008. According to Ofcom, between 1997 and 2001, ITV paid £14 million per year for Formula 1. That increased to £19 million between 2002 and 2005, before increasing again (this time by £10 million) to £29 million between 2006 and 2010. Of course, they pulled out during 2008, with BBC taking over for 2009. Now, if you are suggesting that BBC did not pay substantially more than £29 million between 2009 and 2011, then I would be extremely shocked. £40 million was the amount I believed BBC to be paying, which is supported by a Google search with multiple level sources reporting the same amount.

So to suggest that BBC and Sky combined are paying £8 million less per year, is a bit optimistic. If anything, the £40 million amount would have risen somewhat, we all know how Bernie Ecclestone likes to increase the contract value at any given opportunity, hence why ITV’s Formula 1 contract went up by £10 million per year despite zero competition. I would have a stab and say Sky Sports are paying £40 million, with BBC paying £10 million. That saving, instead of it being £150 million, comes in at £210 million, a far bigger sum than that in the Daily Telegraph article. If BBC are paying £15 million, for sake of argument, then the saving is £175 million over seven years.

On the other side of the spectrum, the article claims that their was a “£480 annual cost of subscribing to Sky’s sports package”. That is an interesting way of putting things, which works out at £40 per month. The article makes out that £40 is the cheapest way to see Formula 1 on Sky. It is not. Keith Collantine of F1 Fanatic worked out that the cheapest annual cost is £363, while another member on that particular website worked out that if you just wanted to watch the ten Sky exclusive live races it via Sky Go on the computer, it would cost you £175. I would not class the £480 figure as an exaggeration, because it is true, but there are much cheaper ways of watching F1 on Sky than that sum.

Across the eight Grands Prix which have taken place so far this year, the BBC’s total audience of viewers watching at least 15 minutes has fallen 20.5% to 20.2m which is understandable given that it lost half of the live races. In contrast, F1 has gained as it is understood that 5.5m watched at least 15 minutes of Sky’s broadcasts of the first eight races and this offset the BBC’s drop. In fact, the total audience for the race in Valencia was 8% up on 2011.

I’m afraid that can only be described as spin. The figures quoted there as reach figures, and it is impossible for the reader to know how many of the 5.5 million are bundled into the 20.2 million figure. I’ve watched the majority of Sky’s programming, but also watched the British Grand Prix on BBC. Does that mean I am two people and therefore bundled into both sets of figures? With regards Valencia, the total audience was up, yes, but on the other hand Australia, Malaysia, Bahrain, Spain, Monaco, Canada and Britain were down. Only Valencia and China have recorded increases.

Finally, I’m afraid I do not believe the following is true:

The deal suits F1 particularly since only a core of die-hard fans watch every race live in full.

BBC’s viewing figures last year were the highest since 1999, both seasons averaging 4.55 million, which shows that not only die-hard fans were getting into watching every race live, but it was also drawing in a large proportion of casual fans. The lowest rated race last season was Belgium, which had 3.76 million viewers. This year, already four races have had under 3.76 million viewers, and this year looks set to be the lowest rated season since 2008…