The 2016 Chinese Grand Prix recorded the lowest audience for a Formula 1 race in the United Kingdom for a decade, unofficial overnight viewing figures show.

Race
Live coverage of the race, broadcast live on Sky Sports F1 from 06:00 to 09:30, averaged 433k (11.1%). The programme hit a five-minute peak audience of 687k. The average audience is down 26.4 percent on 2015, whilst the peak audience is down 29.1 percent year-on-year. Considering nothing has changed year-on-year from a timeslot perspective, the large drop has to be a concern. The picture for Sky is similar to their Australian Grand Prix numbers from last month, whereby both average and peak are down a similarly large amount.

Channel 4’s highlights programme from 13:30 to 15:25 (tape-checked) averaged 1.68m (17.0%). The audience peaked with 2.25m (21.6%) at 14:45 as their highlights edit came to a conclusion. As is now usual, Channel 4’s programming won its timeslot and thrashed their own slot average. Last year, BBC’s highlights programme averaged 2.97m (24.5%), peaking with 3.42m. Year-on-year, Channel 4’s average is down 43.4 percent, with the peak audience down 34.3 percent. The percentage drop for the programme average is the largest recorded yet this year.

Unfortunately, the broader historical picture is bleak. The combined audience of 2.11 million viewers is the lowest for the Chinese Grand Prix since at least 2005. It is also the lowest audience for a Grand Prix since 2006. You have to go back to the 2006 Italian Grand Prix to find a lower average audience. That particular race averaged just 1.86m (23.2%) live on ITV1. The combined peak audience of 2.94 million viewers is also the lowest since Italy 2006.

Qualifying
Live coverage of qualifying on Saturday morning performed solidly on Sky Sports F1, averaging 308k (5.8%) from 07:00 to 10:05. The programme, slightly extended due to the two red flag periods, recorded a five-minute peak of 528k (7.9%) at 09:15. Both measures are down around 20k year-on-year, which in the grand scheme of things is immaterial.

As was been the case in Australia and Bahrain, Channel 4’s qualifying programme was down on BBC’s coverage last year. Highlights of qualifying from 12:30 to 13:55 (tape-checked) averaged 1.19m (14.1%), hitting a peak audience of 1.55m (17.6%) at 13:30. In comparison, BBC’s highlights last year averaged 1.81m (20.9%) and peaked with 2.04 million viewers.

The average audience for qualifying is 34 percent lower than 2015, whilst Channel 4’s peak audience is 24 percent lower than what the BBC recorded last year. These metrics are important to look at as the season progresses, for both qualifying and the race. My hope was that Channel 4 would close the gap on the BBC’s numbers as the season progressed. Early signs are that the gap is not closing and, if the Chinese Grand Prix percentage is to be believed, then the gap is in fact extended.

Final thoughts
The big question: is China the low-point? My gut instinct is no. I have a bad feeling that we will see our first sub two million race day audience for 2016 very soon. I’m not prepared to knee-jerk based on the China number and write a lot of analysis based on one very low rating. Instead, I think we need to wait and see what happens in the next few races before analysing. As a number on its own though, the combined audience of 2.11m is very, very poor and that cannot be avoided.

The 2015 Chinese Grand Prix ratings report can be found here.

The 2016 Bahrain Grand Prix peaked with 4 million viewers in the UK yesterday, around two million viewers down year-on-year, unofficial overnight viewing figures show.

Race
Live coverage of the race was broadcast on Channel 4 and Sky Sports F1 from 15:00 to 18:30.

Channel 4’s live coverage, their first live race averaged 2.30m (16.2%), peaking with 3.24m (20.2%) at 17:30 as Nico Rosberg won the Grand Prix. Numbers stayed relatively stable throughout the Grand Prix on Channel 4, hovering constantly around the three million mark before rising in the last few laps. Last year, BBC’s live coverage averaged 3.83m (26.0%) over a shorter 185-minute slot, peaking with 5.31m (30.8%). Channel 4’s peak is down 39 percent on what the BBC managed for their live Bahrain Grand Prix coverage last season. Channel 4’s race day programming, as in Australia, comfortably won its slot on Sunday afternoon, and performed well against its own slot averages.

Sky Sports F1’s coverage, also airing from 15:00 to 18:30, averaged 546k (3.9%), peaking with 966k (7.3%) at 16:05. Sky’s average is down 14.7 percent year-on-year; however, their peak audience is up 1.6 percent year-on-year. It is interesting to note looking at Sky’s breakdown that their numbers dropped drastically through the race: from 966k at 16:05 to 783k at 16:40. By the time the chequered flag came out, 673k (4.2%) were watching Sky’s coverage. It is very unusual to lose a third of your audience as the race progresses. A good deal of viewers watching on Sky opted out as soon as Lewis Hamilton dropped down the order in the turn one collision, although there are multiple other reasons for the drop that are not F1 related.

The combined audience of 2.84 million is the lowest for the Bahrain Grand Prix since 2007, and is down 36.4 percent year-on-year. The peak came at 16:05, when 4.01m (30.2%) were watching on Channel 4 and Sky. At the time of the peak, the ratio was 76:24 in Channel 4’s favour. The peak of 4.01 million is down 36.0 percent on 2015’s number of 6.26m (36.3%), again the lowest for Bahrain since 2007.

As always, there are a lot of different issues which dictate a number and this is one of them where you need to look beyond the move from BBC to Channel 4. Of course whilst that has had an effect, there were other issues in play yesterday. The first was a lot of sporting opposition, both motor sport and non-motor sport. Alongside the usual Ford Super Sunday, you also had England in the final of the ICC Twenty20 World Cup. The cricket averaged 1.04m (8.0%) on Sky Sports 2 across the majority of yesterday afternoon. Combine that with the pleasant weather over the weekend, and the negative press that Formula 1 has received, and you can see why the number was where it was.

It is also worth re-iterating that Channel 4 won the slot yesterday afternoon whilst the Formula 1 was on, a more important point given the news last week that Sky will be screening every race exclusively from 2019. You can guarantee that, had yesterday’s race been exclusively on pay TV, it would not have drawn a peak audience of 4.0 million, instead it would have been swallowed up by the sporting events around it. In fact, it is probably a testament to the free-to-air coverage that a standard Formula 1 race recorded a significantly higher figure than a major England cricket match hidden exclusively behind a pay-wall…

Qualifying
The universally unloved elimination qualifying format stayed for a second race in Bahrain, and attracted a peak audience of 2.60m (20.3%) at 16:55.

Live coverage on Channel 4 from 15:00 to 17:30 averaged 1.44m (13.2%), with Sky Sports F1 adding a further 360k (3.3%), albeit in a slightly longer slot. The combined audience of 1.80 million is the lowest for a Bahrain qualifying programme since 2008. The drop year-on-year is around 357k or 16.6 percent. That is not actually as bad as it sounds: the BBC’s live qualifying programme last year was 90 minutes long due to other sporting events, whereas Channel 4 were on air yesterday for 150 minutes, which makes a difference to the average.

Channel 4’s peak audience of 2.00m (15.6%) compares with 598k (4.7%) for Sky, a ratio of around 77:23 in Channel 4’s favour. The combined peak mentioned above of 2.60 million is not too far away from the combined peak last season of around 2.85 million, so on the whole the number is not as bad as the headline suggests. It is noticeable how much the qualifying numbers have dropped away for Bahrain since 2013: having the qualifying hour in the core Saturday football window is a bad idea, not just in the UK but across Europe.

Practice
This site does not focus too much on the practice numbers, but the start of a new deal is a good time to have a quick check round the various numbers. Channel 4 aired all three sessions live to audiences of 312k (4.7%), 463k (4.5%) and 823k (10.0%) respectively. In comparison, Sky Sports F1 averaged 82k (1.2%), 82k (0.7%) and 149k (1.8%). The key headline there is practice three, which recorded a combined audience of 972k, and would have peaked at around 1.1 million viewers.

Practice one and three are above Channel 4’s slot averages, and practice two is in-line with their average. It is a really good number for practice three – we rarely focus on practice numbers, but it shows that even though it means little in the context of the race that still over 1 million viewers are prepared to watch it. That’s more to do with the time slot than anything else. Channel 4 Racing, which was situated between practice three and qualifying averaged 638k (7.5%), so the right decision was made with regards Channel 4’s scheduling.

The 2015 Bahrain Grand Prix ratings report can be found here.

Channel 4 may have delivered a solid package over the weekend, but Formula 1 felt the brunt of no presence on BBC TV or ITV, the two largest networks in the United Kingdom, meaning that overnight viewing figures tumbled.

Race
As always at the start of a new Grand Prix season, context is needed as to what the numbers represent. For Channel 4, it is the same as the previous BBC contract: their full highlights programme. Two new things though to note. Firstly, the numbers include advertisements, these are only stripped out in the final consolidated numbers. Secondly, the numbers include Channel 4’s +1 service. Over on Sky Sports F1, it is their three-and-a-half-hour slot which covers Pit Lane Live and the Race itself, so for example from 12:00 to 15:30. Note that due to the red flag period, Australia’s slot is longer as Paddock Live started later than usual.

It was a weekend of contrasting fortunes. After Saturday’s qualifying fiasco, Sunday delivered when it needed to on the circuit. Channel 4’s highlights programme averaged 2.11m (19.0%) from 13:30. The audience peaked in the five-minutes from 15:20 with 2.67m (21.9%) watching. The average is down 30.4 percent on BBC One’s average from last year of 3.03m (27.6%), with the peak measure down 21.0 percent – the difference between the two drops due to Channel 4’s longer programme. Despite the drop, the programme comfortably won its slot and thrashed Channel 4’s slot average.

Live coverage of the race on Sky Sports F1, which aired from 04:00 to 07:45, averaged 271k (18.7%), with Sky Sports 1 adding a further 89k (6.1%), bringing the total audience to 360k (24.8%). The combined peak of 558k (37.4%) came at 06:00 as the race restarted following Fernando Alonso and Esteban Gutierrez’s crash. The average is down 30.4 percent on Sky’s average last year of 517k (29.5%). Despite this year’s race being more exciting than last year’s, the peak was down 29.2 percent on the peak figure from last year of 789k (50.3%). All the figures presented include anyone who watched the live airing later in the day.

The combined audience of 2.47 million is the lowest audience for the Australian Grand Prix since records began (i.e. since at least 2005). The previous lowest was an average audience of 3.18 million in 2006. It is the lowest audience for a Formula 1 race since the 2013 United States Grand Prix.

Qualifying
When Channel 4 signed up to cover Formula 1, they probably did not anticipate that their first qualifying session would be remembered for all the wrong reasons. Their highlights programme from 12:30 to 14:10 on Saturday (19th March) averaged 1.38m (15.4%). The programme recorded a five-minute peak audience of 1.74m (17.9%) at 13:50.

In comparison, last year’s BBC One highlights programme averaged 2.29m (24.5%) over a shorter 75-minute slot. The drop year-on-year is between 30 and 40 percent depending on whether you’re comparing the peak or average figure. Channel 4’s qualifying highlights programme was in line with BBC Two’s Australian qualifying highlights in 2012 and 2014. It should be said that, despite the reduced audience, Channel 4’s programme won the timeslot and was significantly above their own slot average. To give an idea of how well the F1 did on Channel 4 compared to their usual Saturday numbers Channel 4 Racing, which followed the F1, averaged 511k (4.6%).

Live coverage of qualifying over on Sky Sports F1 from 05:00 to 07:45 averaged 184k (11.5%), with Sky Sports 1 adding a further 51k (3.2%). Their coverage recorded a combined peak audience of 423k (17.7%) at 06:50. Sky’s combined audience is down 30.4 percent on last year’s audience across Sky Sports F1, Sky Sports 1 and Sky 1 of 339k (16.4%).

The combined qualifying audience of 1.61m is down 38.6 percent on last year’s figure of 2.63m. Unofficially, it is the lowest number for the Australian Grand Prix qualifying session since 2006. As an aside, Sky’s nine repeats of qualifying averaged a combined audience of 314k, compared to four repeats last year which averaged 202k. Whether viewers made a conscious decision to watch one of the many qualifying repeats on Sky Sports F1 instead of recording the live airing, I don’t know. I don’t include the repeat numbers in the combined audience because you just have no idea how many of those viewers are new viewers.

Analysis – Good for Channel 4, bad for Formula 1
I wrote the following in December when reviewing 2015’s viewing figures:

From a media perspective, Lewis Hamilton versus Sebastian Vettel writes itself. We never quite got it when Vettel was at Red Bull, plus other drivers were involved in the championship battle too. Hamilton versus Vettel, Mercedes vs Ferrari. It is something the casual audience would watch and become invested in. One of the reasons why 2011 was the most watched season in the modern era was not only because of Vettel, but because of Hamilton’s on-track duels with Felipe Massa. We need to see Hamilton versus Vettel, and I hope we see that in 2016. It would draw audiences, not only in the UK but in Germany too. In my opinion, Hamilton vs Nico Rosberg is not something the general public are interested in and the viewing figures reflect that.

Lastly, Formula 1 needs the BBC more than the BBC needs Formula 1. The BBC could replace Formula 1 with repeats on a Sunday afternoon and claim one million viewers, whereas Formula 1 would need to find a new home on ITV or Channel 4, to a significantly reduced audience, more so on the latter.

Channel 4 will be pleased that Formula 1 smashed their slot average, by around 360 percent on Sunday. It should not be overlooked that the numbers Formula 1 delivered over the weekend for them are fantastic numbers in off-peak slots.

For Formula 1 as a whole, however, the moment the switch to Channel 4 was announced, 2016 was always going to be an uphill struggle. The idea that Channel 4 were going to match the BBC’s figures was inconceivable given the reach that the latter has on TV, online and radio. On Saturday, Channel 4 was down 39.7 percent and 33.7 percent (average/peak) year-on-year, compared with 30.4 percent and 21.0 percent on Sunday. Already in the course of 24 hours, both of those metrics were better than before, although Saturday may be influenced by the farcical qualifying session.

It could be argued, from a reach perspective, that this deal will be worse than the previous BBC and Sky deal simply because Formula 1 is not on BBC or ITV. I think it is too early to say that, but the above quoted text (paragraph one) has never been more true. If Bahrain is a Mercedes walkover, I fear for the viewing figures for the remainder of the season. It is easy to say that more people may be watching via other methods, but that will not offset the drops that we could see as the season progresses.

Whilst the drop in numbers year-on-year is somewhat due to the change in the broadcasting rights, Sky Sports dropped by a similar percentage. On both Saturday and Sunday, Sky was down around 30 percent across average and peak. That suggests a much wider problem than simply a change of broadcasting rights that needs to be addressed. Despite having a British world champion, it is clear that viewers were being turned off in the latter half of 2015 and a substantial proportion of the hard-core audience have not returned. Sky’s drop also implies that, if the BBC had retained F1, there would have been a drop for the free-to-air highlights regardless – not by 30 percent but a drop of some proportion, except the change to Channel 4 has exaggerated the drop.

Bahrain will be fascinating with it being Channel 4’s first live race. A battle between Hamilton and Vettel, or a close contest, will help viewing figures. Let’s hope Bahrain delivers on the promise displayed at the Australian Grand Prix.

Speed with Guy Martin impresses
Ahead of the new Formula 1 season, Channel 4 aired a one-hour special edition of Speed with Guy Martin last Thursday (17th March). The show, which featured him going head-to-head with David Coulthard, averaged a strong 2.80m (14.2%) from 21:00 to 22:00. It was second in the slot, only behind BBC One. Impressively, the show had the highest share of adults aged between 16 to 34, 14.9% across the hour. It ended up being the most watched F1 related programme, which shows how vital it is to crossover where possible.

It was Guy Martin’s biggest ever rating on Channel 4, and will probably consolidate to around 3.5 million viewers. At Channel 4’s press launch, Coulthard suggested that there may be more specials with himself and Martin down the road. Given the number for last week’s special, I think the chances of something happening in the future has increased fourfold.

The 2015 Australian Grand Prix ratings report can be found here.