The Twitter outlook – End of season update

2012 has come and gone, and this is the last update with the 2012 drivers and teams from the Formula One season. As thus, after this update expect a few names to disappear from the drivers table whilst HRT will disappear from the teams table.

Drivers
01 – 1,404,622 – Fernando Alonso (Ferrari)
02 – 1,293,003 – Jenson Button (McLaren)
03 – 1,291,438 – Lewis Hamilton (McLaren)
04 – 535,248 – Bruno Senna (Williams)
05 – 518,232 – Mark Webber (Red Bull)
06 – 368,158 – Sergio Perez (Sauber)
07 – 316,819 – Pastor Maldonaldo (Williams)
08 – 242,686 – Felipe Massa (Ferrari)
09 – 228,719 – Nico Rosberg (Mercedes)
10 – 210,763 – Pedro de la Rosa (HRT)
11 – 204,992 – Heikki Kovalainen (Caterham)
12 – 182,159 – Paul di Resta (Force India)
13 – 165,604 – Narain Karthikeyan (HRT)
14 – 116,800 – Vitaly Petrov (Caterham)
15 – 104,001 – Nico Hulkenberg (Force India)
16 – 102,037 – Kamui Kobayashi (Sauber)
17 – 101,265 – Romain Grosjean (Lotus)
18 – 93,918 – Timo Glock (Marussia)
19 – 58,193 – Daniel Ricciardo (Toro Rosso)
20 – 41,512 – Jean-Eric Vergne (Toro Rosso)
21 – 26,172 – Charles Pic (Marussia)

In two milestones, Mark Webber has moved above 500,000 followers whilst in potentially the last check, Heikki Kovalainen has moved above 200,000 followers.

One change I forgot to make in the November end of month update was that Timo Glock should have been behind Romain Grosjean and Kamui Kobayashi, so apologies for that. For December, Kobayashi got in front of Grosjean but is now highly likely to drop out of the table altogether in 2013. Apart from that, the rest of the table is status quo.

Drivers – Increases
01 – 59,149 – Fernando Alonso (n/a)
02 – 47,849 – Lewis Hamilton (n/a)
03 – 33,950 – Jenson Button (n/a)
04 – 18,493 – Sergio Perez (up 2)
05 – 18,351 – Mark Webber (down 1)
06 – 16,343 – Felipe Massa (down 1)
Average driver = 13,278
07 – 13,144 – Pastor Maldonaldo (n/a)
08 – 10,650 – Bruno Senna (up 1)
09 – 8,000 – Narain Karthikeyan (up 6)
10 – 7,273 – Heikki Kovalainen (n/a)
11 – 6,999 – Kamui Kobayashi (up 2)
12 – 6,659 – Nico Rosberg (n/a)
13 – 5,983 – Pedro de la Rosa (down 5)
14 – 4,874 – Romain Grosjean (down 3)
15 – 4,773 – Paul di Resta (down 1)
16 – 3,683 – Daniel Ricciardo (up 2)
17 – 3,104 – Nico Hulkenberg (down 1)
18 – 2,871 – Vitaly Petrov (down 1)
19 – 2,617 – Timo Glock (up 1)
20 – 2,253 – Jean-Eric Vergne (down 1)
21 – 1,819 – Charles Pic (n/a)

The top three above are identical their position in the same table last month. It is worth noting though that the raw values are not directly comparable as December’s table is over five weeks compared with four weeks for November.

Nevertheless, it is unsurprising to see all of the raw numbers down and relatively close together now we are in the off-season. Narain Karthikeyan for whatever reason increased six positions, whilst his team-mate for 2012 dropped five places.

Teams
01 – 402,307 – Ferrari
02 – 278,271 – McLaren
03 – 208,820 – Red Bull
04 – 172,434 – Mercedes
05 – 169,142 – Lotus
06 – 96,637 – Marussia
07 – 96,490 – Caterham
08 – 96,362 – Force India
09 – 95,576 – Sauber
10 – 87,872 – Williams
11 – 72,056 – HRT
12 – 59,964 – Toro Rosso

To milestones above is that Ferrari went above 400,000 and Red Bull went above 200,000. In a reversal of on the track, Marussia moved up above Caterham to finish 2012, albeit by a few hundred followers.

Teams – Increases
01 – 18,235 – Ferrari (n/a)
02 – 10,424 – Red Bull (n/a)
03 – 9,172 – McLaren (n/a)
04 – 8,080 – Lotus (n/a)
05 – 6,727 – Williams (up 7)
Average team = 6,407
06 – 5,871 – Mercedes (down 1)
07 – 4,025 – Marussia (up 1)
08 – 3,960 – Force India (down 1)
09 – 3,558 – Sauber (down 3)
10 – 2,809 – Caterham (up 1)
11 – 2,800 – Toro Rosso (down 1)
12 – 1,227 – HRT (down 3)

Surprisingly, Williams recorded a huge gain here, much higher than in previous months! The next update will be at the end of January with 2013’s teams and drivers.

Driver and Team statistics as of Monday 31st December 2012.

Sky Sports F1 – Top 10 ratings (week ending 23rd December, 2012)

From BARB:

1 – 9k – Canadian Grand Prix Replay (Wednesday, 19:00)
2 – 8k – Martin Brundle’s How To (Saturday, 14:45)
3 – 5k – British Grand Prix Replay (Friday, 19:00)
4 – 4k – Martin Brundle’s How To (Sunday, 15:14)
5 – 3k – Belgian Grand Prix Replay (Sunday, 10:00)
6 – 2k – Monaco Grand Prix Replay (Tuesday, 19:00)
7 – 2k – Italian Grand Prix Replay (Sunday, 16:00)
8 – 2k – German Grand Prix Replay (Saturday, 10:00)
9 – * – Inside Track: Pastor Maldonaldo (Sunday, 15:30)
10 – * – European Grand Prix Replay (Thursday, 19:00)

A star for anyone wondering is when BARB records a viewership for that particular programme of zero.

The top 10 blogs of 2012

Since setting up The F1 Broadcasting Blog in April, I have written 251 blogs. The growth of the website since April has been phenomenal, surpassing the 60,000 views mark on Christmas Day. The website continues to grow, evidence of that can be seen clearly as this month has averaged more views than any month before September despite no racing taking place. Unsurprisingly, some blogs have proved, for one reason or another, to be more popular than others and here is a look back at those more popular blogs from 2012.

10. Chris Evans rules himself out of BBC F1 presenter – November 4th
The main broadcasting story undoubtedly this year was the rumours swirling the BBC F1’s presenter position and who would replace Jake Humphrey. Chris Evans was a contender, but ruled himself out in his Daily Mail blog.

9. Eddie Jordan’s credibility – September 5th
Whilst the BBC F1 presenting change was the main broadcasting story, Lewis Hamilton’s move to Mercedes was definitely the main saga of 2012, which began with Eddie Jordan’s bombshell. The revelation led me to evaluate his credibility in revealing such a story.

8. BBC F1 versus Sky Sports F1: Your Verdict – November 25th
Following the conclusion of the Brazilian Grand Prix, I asked for your verdict on the 2012 Formula One broadcasting scene. The response was fantastic with many detailed responses, which led me to publish a follow-up blog picking out the best comments.

7. F1 2012 DVD season review to be released in 2013 – November 10th
The news that the 2012 Formula One DVD season review would not be released until 2013 was unsurprisingly read a lot during the run up to Christmas and in the immediate aftermath. Not too long now, though, until the DVD hits the shelves.

6. Tom Clarkson doing Lee McKenzie’s job this weekend – June 9th
With Jake Humphrey elsewhere, Lee McKenzie was promoted to the presenter role for the Canadian Grand Prix. In her place was Tom Clarkson, which led to the birth of the above blog article. For me, this was the first time I noticed that the blog was going to properly take off.

5. Mark Pougatch emerges as contender for BBC F1 presenter position – November 15th
Alongside Lee McKenzie and Chris Evans, The Times journalist Kevin Eason labelled Mark Pougatch as a contender for the BBC F1 presenter seat. All three would turn out to be wide of the booth as Suzi Perry was announced as BBC F1 presenter.

4. Jake Humphrey to join BT Vision, leaving BBC at the end of 2012 – September 18th
The initial story I published on September 18th, as it was announced that Jake Humphrey would be leaving BBC’s Formula 1 team and heading to BT Vision’s football coverage.

3. Predicting the 2013 calendar pick order – September 21st
As the 2013 calendar was announced, I took a gamble, stepped into the BBC’s and Sky’s shoes and predicted what actions they would take in determining which races would be live on BBC, and which would be exclusively live on Sky. Whilst I was right some of the time, I was not right all of the time…

2. A few thoughts on Jake Humphrey leaving the BBC – September 18th
As a follow on to number four, later in the day on September 18th, I published my reaction to Jake Humphrey’s BBC F1 departure and speculated about who would replace him. In all cases though, I was wide of the mark.

1. Italian Grand Prix records highest rating since 1998 – September 10th
Before Jake Humphrey announced his BBC F1 departure, all was going swimmingly well. Until on the Monday after Monza it turned out that there were a few famous faces reading this blog. Cue a influx of hits sending the web traffic up many notches!

It has been a fascinating eight months since I began the blog. I have, and still do, enjoy writing content for this blog. Hopefully the success that has been 2012 will continue into 2013.

The ratings picture: The 2012 Verdict

Aside from looking at both the BBC F1 and Sky Sports F1 teams and their respective programming, a key component of this blog in 2012 has been to look at the ratings picture for every individual race. The ratings picture in 2012 has been haphazard thanks to the deal between BBC and Sky, some races have been wildly up and some have disappointed, but overall it is possible to draw some conclusions and bring together averages which I intend to do in this blog.

Before we get into figures, the main figures I use are programme averages. Why? Because they are the most widely available – especially when you are looking at historical Formula 1 figures from say ten years ago. Not every article will attach a ‘race average’ to it. However, I have done some calculations of my own using viewing figures that I have – which I will explain further later. All figures for 2012 comprise of one of the following, where appropriate:

– Sky live and BBC highlights
– Sky live, BBC live and BBC re-run (Asian based races)
– Sky and BBC live (non-Asian based races)

In August, I noted that Formula 1 in 2012 was set to be the lowest rated since on UK television since 2008. That prediction turned out to be true. Furthermore, analysis shows that there are 500,000 viewers that are not tuning into BBC highlights weekends that would otherwise tune into BBC live weekends.

Below are the season averages, based on full programme broadcasts:

– 2006 – 2.75 million
– 2007 – 3.61 million
– 2008 – 4.01 million
– 2009 – 4.38 million
– 2010 – 4.41 million
– 2011 – 4.62 million
– 2012 – 3.89 million (or 4.10 million using the ‘35 percent theory‘)

You may note some minor differences in the viewing figures above versus the ones I published in August. The reason for this is because all the figures from 2006 to 2012 now that I use are consolidated figures (which take into account anyone who has watched within 7 days) whereas before it was a mixture of overnight ratings and consolidated ratings. You will also notice that the 3.89 million figure for 2012 is the lowest since 2007. This is where the ’35 percent theory’ that I explained in August comes back in. When comparing to previous years, the BBC F1 programme started at 12:10 and ran to about 15:15. Sky Sports F1 live programmes ran from 11:30 to 16:15 meaning that the total average for Sky Sports F1 would be artificially deflated as a result. Applying the ’35 percent theory’ on top of the Sky figures gives you the 4.10 million average above. When both BBC and Sky are live, the average for those ten races is 4.38 million viewers. When only Sky are live and when BBC are showing highlights, that figure drops to 3.88 million viewers. Only twice for those ten races has the programme average been above 4 million, Bahrain and Hungary. The remaining eight races with exclusive Sky coverage recorded a average of under 4 million viewers. I would be questioning why that is the case, a 500,000 viewer difference between the two feels significant to me and appears to prove that the majority of fans still prefer to see Formula 1 in 2012 live.

Whilst the change in Formula 1 broadcasting for 2012 is one reason for the overall drop, it is not the only reason. The Olympics is another reason, as is Euro 2012 and Wimbledon. All three sporting events have hit Formula 1’s ratings this year. Formula 1 was always going to be hit by the Summer of Sport. But would the 2012 season have faired better if every race live on the BBC? Absolutely, and I think the fact that the average when races were live on BBC is 500,000 higher than when they were exclusively live on Sky proves that. BBC have every possible way of promoting sporting events – radio, TV, interactive, online. Formula 1 would remain in the limelight and would not become a forgotten sport for the Summer. I think the average would have been down on previous years, but it would have remained well above 4 million viewers in my opinion, near to 2010 levels.

Figure 1.1.
Figure 1.1.

The drop for 2012 is disappointing. But things need to be kept in perspective, Formula 1 is still immensely popular in the UK, and we are not going back to the mid 2000’s, where Formula 1 was struggling to achieve over 3 million viewers as Figure 1.1. above shows. The ratings should rebound in 2013 – no Olympics and no European Championship’s means that Formula 1 has weaker competition next Summer. If viewing figures do not rebound, then questions must be asked whether the BBC and Sky deal was a worthwhile deal for the money-makers to enter into. It also brings up the question of BBC Sport’s Formula 1 team extremely dedicated and hard work across these past few years in increasing the popularity of Formula 1 after the Schumacher years only for those higher up at the BBC to flush over half a million viewers down the toilet.

I noted during my August blog that I hoped the the season average would increase. At the Summer break, the 2012 season was averaging 4.14 million viewers. That figure has dropped very slightly by 40,000 viewers. Not a large drop, but a slight drop for whatever reason. A worrying statistic for me is that only four races seen their figures increase versus 2011. They were Brazil (up by 1 million), Italy, China and Europe. Two races were not on the calendar in 2011, meaning that fourteen rounds seen their figures drop versus 2011. Whilst some rounds clashed with other sporting events, I am fairly certain that does not apply for every one of those fourteen rounds. Canada unsurprisingly recorded the biggest drop versus 2011, whilst Japan and India also recorded sizeable drops. 2013 should see an automatic increase in significant numbers for Canada as the race will be live on BBC One.

The 4.38 million average for the BBC and Sky live races is an average I would have expected overall if BBC was showing every race live. There is an argument – and this applies for every race – that the 520,000 viewers drop is purely due to Sky’s longer airtime as there is a higher viewership for Sky when they are live, hence more weighting on their ratings. That is a completely false assumption to make due to the fact that I have already equalised the ratings as demonstrated above. Using consolidated figures and 5-minute breakdowns, The F1 Broadcasting Blog has taken averages from seven races across the past seven years and calculated the overall averages. Those races are Monaco, Spain, Britain, Belgian, Singapore, Abu Dhabi and Europe. The average is from race start to chequered flag only. The results are as follows:

Race averages (Mon, Spa, UK, Sin, AbD, Eur)
– 2006 – 2.92 million (32.4%) (exc. Belgium, Singapore and Abu Dhabi)
– 2007 – 4.09 million (36.5%) (exc. Singapore and Abu Dhabi)
– 2008 – 4.57 million (37.9%) (exc. Abu Dhabi)
– 2009 – 4.95 million (43.9%)
– 2010 – 5.61 million (43.5%)
– 2011 – 5.58 million (43.7%)
– 2012 – 5.03 million (38.4%)

The conclusion that there has been a viewership drop is unquestionable. Those seven races were all BBC and Sky live races, and the race average is again in the lowest since 2009 – a similar story to the 4.38 million programme averages. Qualifying in 2012 has fared well, averaging 2.32 million viewers. Whilst it is down on 2009, 2010 and 2011 – it does stand in-line with 2010’s average of 2.41 million viewers which itself was affected by a Summer dominated by sport.

Focussing on Sky only to end the piece, live coverage of practice 1 has averaged 65,000 viewers; practice 2 has averaged 75,000 viewers; practice 3 has averaged 94,000 viewers. All three of those numbers have dropped off compared to the where they were at the Summer break, possibly suggesting that viewer fatigue had set in for the latter stages of the season. The F1 Show, when on location at race weekends, has averaged 45,000 viewers. I’ve covered my thoughts on those figures before and the main conclusion is that those figures are extremely low and below Sky’s own expectations. The GP2 Series and GP3 Series on Sky Sports F1 have also fared poorly, both averaging below 100,000 viewers. In my opinion that is due to the lack of advertising that Sky give to the feeder series’, neither series have had adverts promoting them on Sky so it is little wonder to see either series struggle for viewers on the channel. It is worrying that the stars of the feature are being seen by what feels like ‘one man and a dog’, GP2 and GP3 definitely need more of a prominent status here in the UK for 2013.

Several weeks on, and nearly 15,000 words later, that is my 2012 Verdict. Due to reasons already explained, I had hoped to have finished the verdict before Christmas but in any case, I hope you’ve enjoyed reading the pieces and as always, comments are welcome. Roll on 2013!

Note: All the figures quoted here are the averages for the whole race programme, not the race average unless stated. Figures are mostly official figures from BARB and Broadcast magazine. While I have made comparisons and analysis of figures, I should note that I do not have every single ratings figure. The figures for that races that I am missing are:

1992 – Australia, San Marino, France, Portugal, Japan (live and both for AUS, JPN)
1993 – France (live), Japan (highlights)
1994 – Pacific (highlights), San Marino, France, Hungary, Japan (live)
1995 – Australia, Argentina, San Marino, Spain, Japan (all live)
1996 – Canada, Japan (all live)
1997 – Japan (live)
1998 – Australia,France, Japan (all live)
2000 – Malaysia (live and re-run), Japan (live)
2001 – Japan (live)
2003 – Malaysia; Japan (both live)
2004 – China (live)

If anyone is reading and has any of them ratings, leave a comment. While this piece focusses primarily on the 2012 ratings picture, my April piece focussed on the ratings picture for the past twenty years. For anyone wishing to read that, please click here.

Racing Legends, a two part series, on BBC Two

Starting tonight and continuing tomorrow, Racing Legends pairs a celebrity with a legend as the celebrity retraces the steps of that particular racing legend.

Tonight’s episode at 20:00 on BBC Two follows Sir Patrick Stewart as he retraces the steps of three time Formula 1 champion Sir Stirling Moss, whilst tomorrow’s episode, also at 20:00 follows James Martin as he looks at the career of Sir Jackie Stewart. Patrick Stewart and Moss travel to Florence in Italy; Martin and Jackie Stewart head to the Alps and then onto the legendary Monza circuit.

Both programmes will be available on the BBC iPlayer for seven days after original transmission. This was meant to be a three part series, but the third part (Colin McRae and Sir Chris Hoy) has been pulled according to this post on AUTOSPORT Forum due to a ‘contractual problem’. The third part will therefore air at a later date.