The Chinese Grand Prix continued what is turning into a difficult start to the year for Formula 1 in the United Kingdom, overnight viewing figures show.

Race
Live coverage of the race, broadcast on Sky Sports F1 from 06:00 to 09:30, averaged 484k (13.5%). This is a relatively strong number, an increase of around 50,000 viewers on last year’s average of 433k (11.1%). However, it is still a drop on 2015’s average audience of 589k (15.2%), which aired in the same time slot.

Sky’s coverage peaked with 813k, compared with 687k last year, an increase of 18.5 percent year-on-year. Certainly, Sky’s numbers appear to have been boosted by a competitive start to the championship between Lewis Hamilton and Sebastian Vettel, which they will be looking to maintain going forward.

Channel 4’s coverage was not boosted to the same effect, dropping slightly year-on-year. Their highlights programme, which aired from 14:30 to 16:45, averaged 1.52m (18.5%), a drop on last year’s average audience of 1.68m (17.0%), although the percentage share did rise. Coverage of Lewis Hamilton’s win peaked with 2.06m (22.3%) at 16:05, compared with a peak audience of 2.25m (21.6%) in 2016.

The combined audience of 2.00 million viewers is for the second year running the lowest for the Chinese round of the championship on record, a drop of 5.4 percent year-on-year. The combined peak audience of 2.87 million viewers is down slightly on last year’s peak audience of 2.94 million viewers.

In response to a Twitter user who wondered how this compared with 2011: yesterday’s average audience was down 57.8 percent on the 2011 average audience of 4.74 million viewers. That is a lot of lapsed viewers… a small portion will have moved onto other forms of viewing (such as Now TV and online streaming), but the harsh reality is that Formula 1 has lost a significant chunk of viewers in the past five years. Some of that can be blamed on the change of television deals, but some of it can also be blamed the haphazard direction of the sport in recent years.

Qualifying
Channel 4’s highlights of qualifying, which aired from 13:00 to 14:30, averaged 861k (13.6%). The raw audience is down 27.8 percent, but the percentage share was down only 3.3 percent on last year’s average of 1.19m (14.1%). Whilst Formula 1 was on air (including VOSDAL), the total television audience was 6.3 million viewers, compared with 8.5 million viewers from 2016. Clearly, the number is also a sizeable drop on historical BBC and ITV numbers for the Chinese Grand Prix qualifying sessions.

Sky Sports F1’s live coverage of qualifying averaged 255k (5.3%) from 07:00 to 10:00, the programme being extended due to the red flag caused by Antonio Giovinazzi. In any event, Sky’s average audience is down slightly on 2015 and 2016’s averages of 324k (6.2%) and 308k (5.9%) respectively. The average is, however, up on the 2014 fiugure of 236k (7.1%), although it should be noted that the 2014 qualifying session occurred an hour earlier than later years.

The combined average of 1.12 million viewers is down 27 percent on the 2016 combined average of 1.50 million viewers, and half of that recorded in 2015.

Analysis
As with the Australian Grand Prix two weeks ago, the Chinese Grand Prix saw some hefty drops across the board. You could argue that this is the start of a trend, showing that viewers are not interested in the new style Formula 1, and that the lack of overtaking is turning viewers off. It is an easy conclusion to come to, with multiple data points across two rounds supporting that argument.

However, such an argument at this stage is narrow-minded. Let us take a look at the total television audience for the slots that Formula 1 highlights programming has aired in for both Australia and China historically. This takes into account any VOSDAL activity within these slots as well, making up the overnight audience.

	2015	2016	2017
Australia – Qualifying	9.3 million	9.0 million (-0.3 million)	6.7 million (-2.3 million)
Australia – Race	10.9 million	11.1 million (+0.2 million)	8.0 million (-3.1 million)
China – Qualifying	8.7 million	8.5 million (-0.2 million)	6.3 million (-2.3 million)
China – Race	12.1 million	9.9 million (-2.3 million)	8.2 million (-1.7 million)

What does this tell us? That, beyond Formula 1, television viewing figures on these particular Saturday and Sunday afternoons are down significantly compared with 2015 and 2016. Clearly with less of an audience around (whether it is sunshine related or not), audiences are bound to drop to some degree year-on-year, although this does not change the long-term problem for the sport.

For those hoping that Formula 1 was going to receive some ratings boost in the off-season, that has not happened – yet. With Hamilton and Vettel tied in the championship standings heading into this weekend’s Bahrain Grand Prix, live across Channel 4 and Sky Sports, broadcasters and paddock people alike will be hoping for a reverse in ratings fortunes, starting with Bahrain.

The 2016 Chinese Grand Prix ratings report can be found here.

Formula 1 returned to the television screens this past weekend with the Australian Grand Prix, as Ferrari’s Sebastian Vettel claimed victory. In the UK, viewing figures continued to struggle off the back off last year, but there are some promising signs going forward.

To start the year, I want to remind readers that all viewing figures presented on the site are Live + VOSDAL (Video on Same Day as Live). As an example, if you recorded Channel 4’s highlights programme, and watched it before 02:00 the same day, you would be counted as a viewer in the Live + VOSDAL viewing figures (also known as ‘overnight viewing figures’).

The overnight viewing figures reported include advertisements. Secondly, the numbers include Channel 4’s +1 service. Over on Sky Sports F1, the reported number of this site is for their three-and-a-half-hour slot which covers Pit Lane Live and the Race itself, so for example from 12:00 to 15:30.

Race
Live coverage of the race, broadcast on Sky Sports 1 and Sky Sports F1 from 05:00 to 08:30, averaged 395k (22.2%), an increase on last year’s audience of 360k (24.8%). The raw share is down slightly year-on-year, which is due to the clocks moving forward by one hour, meaning that the total available audience for breakfast programming was slightly higher. The race peaked with 636k (38.7%) at 06:35 as Sebastian Vettel claimed the lead, a nice increase of 14 percent on last year’s peak figure of 559k (37.4%).

In terms of the split, 315k watched on the dedicated F1 channel, with a further 80k watching on Sky Sports 1. Including VOSDAL, an audience of 552k (37.2%) were watching Sky’s coverage as the race started at 06:05. This grew consistently as the battle between Vettel’s Ferrari and Lewis Hamilton’s Mercedes continued in the early stages, hitting the peak of 636k at 06:35. At this point, audiences dropped back down to 585k (35.7%), stabilising just under 600k before jumping back up to 622k (27.1%) as Vettel took the chequered flag. Bear in mind that, in this context, the drops and increases are likely to be viewers ‘fast playing’ through their recordings or vice versa.

Highlights of the race, broadcast on Channel 4 from 14:00 to 16:35, averaged 1.65m (20.6%), a drop of 22 percent on 2016’s average audience of 2.11m (19.0%). The total television audience yesterday whilst Formula 1 was on-air was significantly lower than twelve months ago: 8.0m vs 11.1m, contributing to the audience drop. Channel 4’s coverage peaked with 2.07m (26.0%) at 15:10, a drop of around 600k on last year’s peak audience of 2.67m (21.9%). Again, note the stark difference in share year-on-year. In comparison, the BBC’s highlights coverage in 2014 peaked with 3.15m (26.4%). Therefore, the raw shares for 2017 are not a problem, but the low audience is an issue.

The combined average audience of 2.04 million viewers is the lowest for Australia on record, and down 424k on last year’s audience of 2.47 million viewers. Compared with 2015, the combined audience has dropped 42 percent. The combined peak audience of 2.70 million viewers is down on 2016’s peak audience of 3.23 million viewers.

Qualifying
Live coverage of qualifying across Sky Sports 1 and Sky Sports F1 from 05:00 to 07:40 averaged 254k (12.6%), a slight increase on last year’s audience of 235k (14.7%). The session itself peaked with 481k (14.6%) at 07:05 as Lewis Hamilton claimed pole position. Although the average audience increased year-on-year, Sky’s combined audience is down on the figures recorded for 2014 and 2015 by around 25 percent.

Channel 4’s highlights programme, which aired from 13:00 to 14:45 on Saturday afternoon, averaged 1.22m (18.2%). The number decreased in volume compared to 2016 (1.38m/15.4%), but increased in share thanks to the warmer weather. A peak audience of 1.69m (24.6%) were watching Channel 4’s coverage at 14:20, compared with 1.74m (17.9%) last year. Small drops all around for the broadcaster, but the numbers are healthy enough to not be concerning at this stage.

The combined audience of 1.48 million viewers is the lowest for the Australian Grand Prix qualifying session on record, however the combined peak audience held up with 2.17 million, above last year’s combined peak audience by just 9,000 viewers! The story here is that fewer people watched qualifying ‘live’ (for both broadcasters) compared to previous years, spinning through advert breaks and deflating the average audiences slightly as a result.

Analysis
One of the beautiful things about working with data is that there is never simply one answer to why a given data point shows X. The Australian Grand Prix viewing figures are a fantastic example of where the data on the surface looks extremely poor, but there are justifiable reasons to back up why the data shows what it does.

On track, both the live coverage on Sky and Channel 4’s highlights programme peaked when Sebastian Vettel took the lead. That should not be a surprise as the main action ‘ended’ at that point. Afterwards in both broadcasts, the audience dropped slightly. Certainly Vettel taking the lead at the stage that he did, combined with no supplementary battles to keep the viewer enticed, led to figures dropping away.

Off track, there were two main factors, both of which relate to Channel 4. The weather was warmer over the weekend. Warmer weather means that there are fewer people inside watching the television. By the time the evening came around, some viewers may have already found out the result via other means, and deleted the recording. Secondly, it was Mother’s Day in the UK, which again would have depleted viewing figures. Formula 1’s audience on Channel 4 was down 424k year-on-year, yet the total available audience for the slot was down 3.1 million year-on-year. Lack of football on Sky should have helped Channel 4, but the warm weather and Mother’s Day countered that effect.

I am not defending the figures by any stretch, but it is critical to place viewing figures into context. It is too early to say whether the drops seen in Melbourne are a sign of things to come, or a one-off occurrence to start the 2017 season.

The 2016 Australian Grand Prix ratings report can be found here.